Changing Political Scenes In Nepal

Siddhi B. Ranjitkar

On December 18, 2009, leaders of the Unified Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (UCPN-Maoist) have completed the declaration of 13 autonomous states across Nepal as a part of the third round of movement against the President’s unconstitutional move on directly writing a letter to the army chief amid the trumpeting of the President and other political leaders to follow the rule of law that they did not follow. It indicates the political course has taken a new turn in Nepal. Political leaders have continued to trumpet the need for consensus politics and have pretended to hold talks to reach it but they have been fast moving to the opposite directions ultimately tending to a presidential rule.

The seeds of current political uncertainty were shown immediately after the results of the elections for the Constituent Assembly (CA) held on April 10, 2008. The UCPN-Maoist emerged as the winner of the elections although it could not garner even a simple majority required for forming a government. Leaders of the Nepali Congress (NC) and the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist and Leninist (CPN-UML) could not digest the results of the elections. So, they immediately started to maneuver the political situation forcing the Maoists to reach the bargain for amending the Interim Constitution of Nepal of 2007 for replacing the consensus politics with a majority rule in return for declaring Nepal a republic. Following the previous agreements and the understandings they have reached, and following the Interim Constitution of Nepal of 2007, they need to follow the consensus politics for governance and for the task of writing a new constitution rather than the majority rule.

The NC, CPN-UML and other Madheshi political parties played the card of the majority rule in the elections for the President and the Vice-president. The NC, CPN-UML and Madheshi People’s Rights Forum (MPRF) formed a loose alliance for electing the candidates of their choice for President and Vice-president. However, most of the leaders of the NC were skeptical of getting their candidate elected; so, senior and serious leaders including Girija Prasad Koirala refrained from filing their candidacy for president. So, they put forward a joker candidate: Dr. Ram Baran Yadav. Their fear confirmed when the legislature could not elect the candidate of NC for President in the first round of election held on July 19, 2008 whereas the candidate of MPRF for vice-president Permananda Jha got elected. Dr. Ram Baran Yadav got elected in the second round of the election for President held on July 21, 2008.

Thereafter, NC leaders have anticipated that the loose alliance of the NC, CPN-UML and MPRF would stay and they would have a chance of keeping the power following a majority rule. So, Interim Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala held on to power for the unprecedented period of four months after the elections for the legislature. At the same time, Maoists continued to fight for gaining the power saying either they would lead the government or stay in the opposition, they are not compromising on less than that. At that time, except for the NC leaders, other political leaders believed that the political stability would not be possible sidelining the Maoists with the largest number of legislators. So, the alliance members such as CPN-UML and MPRF did not agreed on the NC leaders’ proposal for forming a new government of theirs only.

Then, on august 15, 2008, Chairman of UCPN-Maoist Prachanda got elected to the position of Prime Minister with 464 votes out of 601 votes in the legislature. Except for the NC legislators, other legislators voted for Prachanda.

Prime Minister Prachanda could not meet the aspirations of the legislators for the consensus politics following the mandate given. Forgetting the UCPN-Maoist has not a majority in the legislature and going against the aspiration of the legislators for the consensus politics, Prime Minister Prachanda and his colleagues monopolized the power. They did not consider the existence of other small political parties in the legislature, and did not brought NC leaders onboard to his cabinet giving the ministerial portfolios they had demanded; they believed that they deserved the portfolio of Home or Defense ministry. In addition, the UCPN-Maoist went alone to fire the undisciplined Chief of Army Staff making it a last straw for other leaders to act unconstitutionally fearing the Maoists would grab the power using the Acting Chief of Army staff Prime Minister Prachanda has appointed.

Leaders of eighteen political parties headed by the CPN-UML leaders marched to the presidential residence in Kathmandu on May 3, 2009, and convinced the ceremonial President of the need for saving the job of the army chief for saving democracy even breaking the basic law: Interim Constitution of Nepal of 2007. The president became a scapegoat. Even knowing his action on directly writing a letter to the army chief and asking him to stay on in the job would be going against the Interim Constitution of Nepal of 2007, President Dr. Ram Baran Yadav did write a letter to the army chief ordering him to stay on in the job. Thus, the so-called parliamentary parties and democrats have lost the credibility, as they have acted against their commitment to democracy.

Strictly following the Interim Constitution of Nepal of 2007, President Dr, Ram Baran Yadav could have stopped the Prime Minister from firing the army chief but he chose the unconstitutional action on directly writing a letter to the army chief putting his own neck at risk and losing his sense of duty to defend the constitution. So, some political analysts say that the President has no rights to stay on in the job on the moral ground.

Prime Minister Prachanda had no choice but to quit the job protesting against the unconstitutional move of the President on directly writing a letter to the army chief. The Maoist legislators took the case to the legislature for debating over the President’s move on directly writing a letter to the army chief. However, the Speaker of the legislature did not permit the legislators to discuss it adding insult to injury. Thus, the Speaker became the second person for breaking the Interim Constitution of Nepal of 2007 not allowing debate over the issue of the national importance at the legislature.

One of the advocates has filed a case against the President at the Supreme Court of Nepal stating the President’s move on directly writing a letter to the army chief goes against the Interim Constitution of Nepal of 2007. However, the Supreme Court has held a hearing on this nationally important and politically high-charged case once, and that’s all so far.

The current political deadlock would not have developed if the President has apologized to the public for making such a mistake of not abiding by the Interim Constitution of Nepal of 2007, if the Speaker has allowed the legislators to debate over this issue at the legislature and the Supreme Court of Nepal has ruled on it without delay. None of these things has happened contributing to the current political deadlock.

Some political pundits say that if the leaders of the eighteen political parties have made someone directly elected to the legislature a Prime Minster rather than making a person defeated in the elections for the CA in two constituencies they would have some justification for the fear of losing democracy to the Maoists. Currently, any politically sensible person would certainly say that the President has violated the Interim Constitution of Nepal of 2007 directly writing a letter to the army chief and then even going against the principle of rule of law and democracy, the Speaker has refused to debate over it for validating its legality; and the legislators have made the mockery of democracy electing the person defeated in two constituencies for a Prime Minister.

Finding the rule of law is not working; the Maoists have started off taking the issue to the streets declaring one round of movement after another against the President’s move on directly writing a letter to the army chief. Following the first and second rounds of their movement, the Maoists have protested the public functions of the President, Prime Ministers and ministers and have held sit-ins at the government secretariat in Kathmandu, and at offices of the local administrations such as the district headquarters and municipal offices.

Following the third round of the movement, leaders of the UCPN-Maoist have declared autonomous states across Nepal. Maoist leaders have been saying that the declaration of autonomous states is absolutely following the Interim Constitution of Nepal of 2007 whereas the leaders of NC and CPN-UML have been trumpeting that it goes against the Interim Constitution of Nepal of 2007 and the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) the government has reached with the Maoist and is the part of the Interim Constitution of Nepal of 2007; so the Maoists are breaching the CPA, and are trying to take the power by force.

Some other Maoist leaders have been saying that the declaration of autonomous states is only for putting pressure on the government and other political leaders to declare autonomous states as early as possible; actually, the CA will do the formal declaration of autonomous states. Chairman of UCPN-Maoist Prachanda has said that declaration of autonomous republics is for creating awareness of federalism among the people, and warned that the autonomous republics might turn into parallel governments if the conspiracy to derail the writing of constitution and the peace process continues.

Probably, the Maoists believe that the declaration of autonomous states would strengthen their grip on people at the grassroots level so that in any eventuality, they could hold on to power at the grassroots level. They could at least give the sense of autonomous states and keep the people at the grassroots level happy. In addition, it might be the strategy of the Maoists to mobilize the people at the lowest level.

At the same time, Maoist cadres have started to capture the property belonging to the large landlords particularly the leaders of the NC and the CPN-UML. Leaders of the NC and CPN-UML have been saying that the Maoists have not returned the property they have seized during the conflict despite the fact that they have agreed on to return all property within a fortnight after signing the CPA rather their cadres have started off grabbing the private and public property.

Some Maoists have thought that they would keep the seized property legally after formulating a land reform bill and then passing it at the legislature and enforcing it while they are in government. However, they could not materialize their dream. So, they have been keeping the property by force, and their cadres have again started off encroaching on others’ property and public property.

Some leaders of NC and CPN-UML are not for sharing the power with Maoists at any cost but provoking them to violence according to the Maoist leaders. For them the rule of law is the rule of theirs. So, they don’t mind not writing a new constitution, and want to find even some pretexts not to write a new constitution according to the Maoists. The Maoists give the example of the armed police killing the unarmed people at Dudejharai in the Kailali district on December 4, 2009 in the name of ejecting the landless people staying on in the fallow land for provoking violence and then breaking the peace process for imposing a presidential rule.

Some political analysts suspect that the NC and CPN-UML leaders have been holding up the writing of a new constitution until the life of the CA expires, and then declare a presidential rule in the country. Following the Interim constitution of Nepal of 2007, the CA is only for two years with the provision for extending its tenure for another six months in the case of extraordinary situation in the country. Once the CA expires, the legislature will also automatically ends following the Article 83 of the Interim Constitution of Nepal of 2007, and Prime minister will lose the job following the Article 38 (7) and then all power goes to the President.

Completion of writing a new constitution is possible only when all political parties work on the consensus politics. In view of this reality, all political parties need to strive for reaching the consensus politics. Unfortunately, major political parties have stuck to their political positions and do not want to reach the consensus politics ultimately tending to the presidential rule and the political chaos.

The Maoists say that they would not go off the track of the peace process and the writing of a new constitution no matter what some so-called leaders have been doing against such things. The Maoists also accuse them of provoking the Maoists to violence so that they could use the army and finish off the Maoists. However, the Maoists say that they are committed to the peace process and peaceful protests rather than using guns whereas the leaders of NC and CPN-UML are accusing the Maoists of having the mindset of violence and and want to use the firepower to grab the power.

The Maoist legislators have been holding the legislature hostage demanding to debate the unconstitutional move of the president. However, the fanatic leaders of the NC and CPN-UML have not mind it, as they want to push the political situation to the extreme, and then to impose the presidential rule according to the Maoists. It might have some truth given the current activities of those so-called leaders ostensibly for saving democracy actually working undemocratically.

Maoist leaders know that they cannot reconcile with the rightists but they say that they are striving for reconciliation. Both the Maoists and the parliamentary leaders do not want to follow the political realities of the need for the consensus politics. They think that they are surrendering to each other if they agree on the demand of each other. The talk of the consensus politics has been only the rhetoric.

The extreme left and right leaders have moved so far apart that they might be irreconcilable. However, they continue to parrot that they have no alternative to reconciliation and move forward to the consensus politics at the same time fighting against each other. The question is who will come out as winners whether the extremists or the liberals. The country will go down as a failed state if the extremists emerge as the winners if the liberals emerge as the winners Nepalis will have a new constitution, keep Federal Republic of Nepal and live in peace. However, the political power has been the bread and butter for the extremists. Probably, they will not live without it ultimately opting to a presidential rule.

December 19, 2009