Political Polarization in Nepal

By Siddhi B. Ranjitkar

Former Prime Minister and President of Nepali Congress (NC) has been attempting to polarize political parties representing in the Constituent Assembly (CA) into the so-called democratic minded and the left front headed by the Maoists and then challenge the government run by the Maoists and even tear down the government and take the power back to his hands. He started off with the national campaign of creating awareness of the current political situation among the people of Nepal, then calling for the unity of all democrats, then obstructing the sessions of the CA and finally calling the meeting of the 18 political parties for urging the government to call the session of the CA.

President of NC Koirala found out that President of the Madheshi People’s Rights Forum (MPRF) tricked him to electing the nominee of the MPRF for the Vice-president. When the leaders of the NC, Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxists and Leninist (CPN-UML) and MPRF forged an alliance for the elections of the first President and Vice-president of the Federal Democratic Republic of Nepal, NC President Koirala and even CPN-Maoist Chairman Prachanda thought that the alliance would last for a long time and the three parties would form a new coalition government. However, after the election, MPRF President Upendra Yadav broke away from the alliance urged all political parties to form a consensus government. NC President Koirala could not digest it and opted for staying away from the government letting the CPN-Maoist form a government in coalition with the CPN-UML and MPRF.

NC President Koirala started off the national campaign of creating awareness of the current political situation among the Nepalis. First, he went to Birgunj saying that it was the town from where the NC had launched a campaign against the Rana family rule in early 1950s to launch again the national campaign against the coalition government of the three parties: CPM-Maoist, CPN-UML and MPRF in the name of creating awareness of political situation among the people. Then, he went to another town and finally to Nepalgunj and addressed the rally. However, NC President Koirala failed in creating even ripples among the people through the national campaign.

Then, he called on the President of Rastriya Janashakti Party (RJP) Surya Bahadur Thapa to forge a unity of the so-called democrats. Previously, RJP President Thapa had made a similar call but NC President Koirala brushed off his call. In addition, RJP President Thapa had not forgotten how Koirala had tricked him to be the Prime Minister and then remove him from the power after three months in the previous regime. So, RJP President Thapa was reluctant to believe in Koirala. So, the call of NC President Koirala for unifying all democratic minded parties had produced nothing.

Then, NC President Koirala resorted to obstructing the sessions of the CA. He ordered the members of the CA belonging to his party to boycott the sessions of the CA putting forward demands including the return of the property grabbed by the Maoists during the conflict with the State. A large number of the NC members had lost their property to the Maoists. So, everybody enthusiastically followed the order of the NC President. All the members of the CA belonging to the NC assembled at the dais and shouted slogans against the government and went out of the CA hall stalling the regular sessions. They went on doing these sorts of things for more than a week until the Prime Minister came to the CA and addressed them and promised them to return the property to the former owners. However, all of them collected the allowances and remunerations paid for attending the CA sessions. They also made the nation paid for the loss of time for the process of the constitution writing, and the process of passing various bills into laws.

On Sunday, February 8, 2009, addressing a group of reporters in his hometown Biratnagar, NC President Koirala said that the Madheshi leaders and the NC leaders needed to forge a unity; in fact, they were once the leaders of the NC, and then he said that he preferred to make Nepal the federal state of five states of the current five regions. Then, he told the reporters that he was not for tearing down the current government but he would prefer Former General Secretary of CPN-UML Madhav Kumar Nepal to Prachanda for the position of Prime Minister.

Probably in response to the call of the NC President Koirala, President of MPRF Upendra Yadav said that the NC particularly the President Koirala was responsible for taking the country to the current dismal economic situation. Probably, NC President Koirala had thought that simply snapping his fingers would bring the Madheshi leaders to his fold but it did not happen so.

Madhav Kumar Nepal and his party CPN-UML have not responded the call of NC President Koirala to be the Prime Minister publicly. Probably, they are waiting for finishing their general convention to be started off in Butwal on February 19, 2009. Madhav Kumar Nepal was one of the contenders for the position of the General Secretary of the CPN-UML, to be elected by the general convention according to the Nepalese media. If Madhav Nepal wins the election for the General Secretary of the CPN-UML, he might think of forging an alliance with the NC President and form a government, as he has not forgotten how Prachanda not accepting his nomination for the First President of the Federal Democratic Republic of Nepal has disgraced him. He himself had once said that the voters rejected him after the elections for the CA. How could a person rejected by the people for even the member of the CA anticipate to be the President and then the Prime Minster? If he becomes a Prime Minister it would be disgrace to the Nepalese voters.

On February 9, 2009, NC President Koirala called the meeting of all leaders of the political parties represented in the CA to oppose the promulgation of ordinances. Leaders of the eighteen political parties attended the meeting at the office of the NC at Sanepa, Lalitpur. Leaders of the MPRF did not respond the call of the NC president. Leaders of the eighteen political parties attending the meeting decided to urge the government to call the session of the CA. Leaders of the CPN-UML wanted it to happen after the general convention of their party to be held in Butwal in the third week of February.

Vice-president Parmanada Jha said that nothing was wrong to bring ordinances if these ordinances would serve the interest of the people.

It had been the practice of one political party or another to obstruct the sessions of the CA demanding one thing or another from the government. So, we cannot expect the sessions of the CA would run smoothly, as it is easier for the political parties to put pressure on the government through the blockade of the CA sessions than any other means. The CA has been the political arena for the opposition politicians to demonstrate their muscles against the government although it was elected for writing a new constitution.

To the surprise of the NC President and most of the NC leaders, on February 10, 2009, after consulting the legal experts and the Chairman of the Constituent Assembly, President Ram Baran Yadav signed off on the ordinances making them laws. Some NC leaders said that the President signed off on the ordinances without consulting the leaders of the political parties.

After the ordinances have become the laws, the government can set up a commission on whereabouts of the missing people, make the state services inclusive in other words the government can employ the people of various ethnic groups, Madheshis, underprivileged people and women in the state services in proportion to their population, and update the voters’ list for the upcoming by-elections.

It is clear from the current activities of the NC President Koirala that he wants to tear down the current government forging an alliance with other political parties and put up his own candidate for the Prime Minister, make him the Prime Minister for some time and then remove him and then he himself sit in the chair of the Prime Minister. For example, he replaced the then-Prime Minister Lokendra Bahadur Chand by Surya Bahadur Thapa and then he took the chair after three months. NC President Koirala played the same trick on Krishna Prasad Bhattarai placing him in the chair of the Prime Minister after the general election in 1999, and then forcing him to quit the chair after a year.  So, NC President Koirala was attempting to play the same old trick on the political leaders this time, too but Madhav Kumar Nepal is not Surya Bahadur Thapa, and Prachanda is not Krishna Prasad Bhattarai. It remains to be seen whether NC President Koirala would be successful in his mission to get back the lost chair of Prime Minister playing his old trick on the new personalities.

On February 11, 2009, President of Rastriya Prajatantra Party-Nepal (RPP-Nepal) Kamal Thapa said that the nation had been facing the grave political situation, so, it was not the appropriate time to change the government but all patriots needed to unite to save the country from falling apart. Certainly, if RPP-Nepal President Thapa was sincere in his statement, he might not join the bandwagon of the NC President Koirala to tear down the current government and form a new government.

The legislature-parliament has the representation of 25 political parties but four major political parties such as CPN-Maoist, NC, CPN-UML and MPRF have the significant representation in it. So, they are the key players in making and breaking a government. The combination of CPN-Maoist and MPRF or of NC, CPN-UML and MPRF can have the simple majority in the legislature-parliament to form or dissolve a government. Similarly, most unlikely cases but arithmetically possibilities are the combination of the CPN-Maoist with NC or CPN-UML also makes a majority required for dissolving and forming a new government.

NC President Koirala might form a combination of political parties without the Maoists to dissolve the current government and set up a new government making Madhav Kumar Nepal or someone else the Prime Minister but such a government would not have sunny days at all.

Political analysts say that the Maoists have spread their nets almost everywhere. So, any government without the participation of the Maoists might have hard time to survive. In addition, the CA could not have two-third majority to pass any aspects of a new constitution without the participation of the Maoists. So, even if NC President Koirala could garner a simple majority to submit a no-confidence motion against the current government in the legislature-parliament, and set up a new government, its long lasting would be questionable and the practice of forming and dissolving a new government would follow hampering the process of the constitution writing and the peace process.

If NC President Koirala cares for the welfare of the Nepalese people, he would certainly follow the consensus politics. He had failed in staying on in power because of his failure in following the consensus politics in the past several times. Obviously, he has not learned the lessons from his past mistakes and has been attempting to enforce his old tricks to regain the power but the new political players such as the Maoists and the Madheshi leaders have emerged and the game board has been changed drastically. However, NC President Koirala has been dreaming of the same old board game and trying to play the same old power game.

NC President Koirala anticipated that all Madheshi leaders would come to support him at his call for the unity of the Madheshi and the NC. However, he forgot that his party had failed in doing any significant things for the welfare of the Madheshi people except for continuing the age-old system prevailing in Madhesh for exploiting the Madheshi people for the benefits of the people in power. If the NC President has realized such truth he would not dare to call the Madheshi for joining his party again.

Political analysts say that the CPN-UML has been almost like the NC; they say it is communist in name only. Even the CPN-UML cadres say that the leaders of the CPN-UML are in name only. They have been living luxurious lives leaving the people they suppose to serve far behind in status and standard of living. So, it is likely that the CPN-UML will clasp hands with NC President Koirala and attempt to forge an alliance to form a new government. It remains to be seen how it would work.

February 13, 2009.