Shaking Unshakable Pharaoh

Siddhi B. Ranjitkar

Uprisings in the Middle East have been against the dictators that have been ruling the countries with their iron hands for decades. Now, the people in this area want real democracy following fair and free elections to parliaments and governments, independent judiciary, free media and rule of law. The first uprising in Tunisia has already driven away the dictator from the country. Currently, the uprising in Egypt has been intensifying to unseat Hosni Mubarack from the chair of the president. Jordanians and Yemenis have also started off people’s protests. Syria might be the next one in turn waiting for the people’s uprising. Western countries particularly the United States of America have been concerned with the militant Islamists taking over the power in Egypt. So, they are for orderly transfer of power through elections, through amendment to laws and the rule of law. The uprisings have adversely impacted on the world economy, as the Middle East has been the supplier of energy for fueling the world economy.

For decades, the Arab states have been without the laws of politics while democracy and rule of law have taken roots in many parts of the world. These nations have remained static undermining the political, economic and social development that go with the rule of law and democracy. They have been living in despotism. They have no liberty in their development, no participation in the governance and no say in their political lives.

The recent revolt in Tunisia, the current uprising in Egypt, the smaller ones in Jordan and Yemen have shown that the Arabian countries are on their way to the complete transformation from the authoritarian rule to the rule of law and democracy. Arabs also want to live in a free society, to read uncensored newspapers, to have freedom of speech, and participate in free and free elections. The beginning of the trend of opening the Arab world to a free society has already been set. Nobody will be able to reverse this trend no matter what price he or she will need to pay for that.

Mubarak has ruled his country for three decades using the emergency law as a tool for staying on in power without challenge. He has no tolerance even for the moderate opposition. He has been an absolute ruler for three decades and has been preparing for transferring his power to his son as in Syria in the past and in North Korea recently.  Mubarak has sent the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood to underground allowing it to thrive in the mosques, and has used it as an excuse for not holding a free election saying such an election will bring the Islamists to power.

The massive protests are underway all over Egypt despite the police killing hundreds of them and injuring thousands. The police have killed hundreds of protestors but the protestors have continued to pour in on the Tahrir Square in Egypt. Mubarak and his police have not revealed any real records of the protestors killed and injured. Most of the international media have relied on the word of mouth for the number of dead and injured. The Mubarak government has cut off the Internet and limited the number of cell phones working. However, brave Egyptians have used whatever possible means available to relay the message of the people’s uprising to the world community.

In view of cooling down the people’s anger, Mubarak withdraws the police from the streets and announces the change in the government. However, protestors have responded with intensified protest calling ‘Mubarak out’. Pulling the police out of the streets and putting the army on the streets, Mubarak wants to deter the protestors.  Obviously the tactics has not worked. Number of protestors has increased and they have been determined to unseat Mubarak from the power.

Most probably, Mubarak has released thousands of prisoners from prisons and kept the police out of actions for not providing the people with security causing anarchy to intimidate the people and sent them home from the street protesting against him but the people set up vigilantes and have taken care of their security.

Responding to the protests of the Egyptian people on Friday, January 28, 2011, US President Obama has told the protestors to stay peaceful in protesting and Mubarak to reform the governance system. Later, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has said that there should be transfer of power. However, Clinton has also suggested that Mubarak could stay to oversee free election in September 2011 provoking strong criticism from the Egyptian opposition.

On Saturday, January 29, 2011, Mubarak has appointed intelligence chief Omar Suleiman as vice president and former air force commander Ahmed Shafiq as prime minister. The three decades of the dictatorial rule of Hosni Mubarak has left Egypt with the vacuum of any reliable mechanisms that can take up a democratic rule.

President Barack Obama has met with Middle East experts in an attempt to find a path to follow after the end of the Mubarak regime to continue to do business with a new regime. On Feb 01, 2011, the Obama administration has dispatched veteran diplomat Frank Wisner to Cairo in an effort on monitoring anti-government protests in Egypt. Wisner is "a former ambassador to Egypt, he knows some of the key players within the Egyptian government," said State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley, and Wisner is also expected to meet with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak.

According to the Oval news, Vice President Joe Biden has made a phone call to King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa of Bahrain, and the Vice President has reiterated the stand of the Obama administration on opposing violence and calling for restraint; supporting universal rights including the right to peaceful assembly, association, and speech; and supporting an orderly transition to a government that is responsive to the aspirations of the Egyptian people.

Egyptian protestors have planned to bring one million people on the streets on Tuesday, February 01, 2011, to shake the unshakable Hosni Mubarak for three decades in a showdown. They have managed to bring hundreds of thousands of protestors to the Tharir Square.

The army on the street have not confronted with the protestors rather have watched them protesting against Mubarak. The Egyptian Army has announced that it will not act against the protestors that have been demanding the legitimate democratic reforms on January 31, 2011.

The military's statement, as reported in the state-run Mena news agency, said, "The presence of the army in the streets is for your sake and to ensure your safety and wellbeing. The armed forces will not resort to use of force against our great people." It referred to the "legitimate demands of honorable citizens,"guardian.co.uk quotes. Thus, the Egyptian army has supported the protestors that have been demanding democratic reforms.

On the night of January 31, Egyptian vice-president Omar Suleiman has said that Mubarak has asked him to start talking to all the political parties with the views of constitutional and legislative reforms. It might be too little and too late, as the uprisings seem to be not for a simple change in constitution but a drastic change in the system of governance. So, people want first Mubarak out and then install a new government for the system change.

Tens of thousands of people have been rallying in the Cairo's central Tahrir Square chanting, "get out, Mubarack" and singing the national anthem demonstrating the patriotic motives of the protestors. Protestors have been determined to stay on in the square until they achieve their goal of unseating Mubarak.

Prime Minister of Israel Binyamin Netanyahu has feared that radical Islamists might take over the power in Egypt. "Our real fear is of a situation that could develop ... and which has already developed in several countries including Iran itself, repressive regimes of radical Islam," he told reporters after meeting the German chancellor, Angela Merkel. Israel has 30-year peace treaty with Egypt. Prime Minister Netanyahu has naturally the fear of the new rulers might not maintain the treaty.

Opposition parties including the Muslim Brotherhood: the leading Egyptian Islamist political party that is hostile to Israel and close to Hamas, the Palestinian rulers in Gaza have mandated the Egyptian dissident Mohamed ElBaradei to talk to the army about forming a "national salvation government." Mr. ElBaradei has been the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and has claimed that Iraq has no weapons of mass destruction undermining the Bush Administration’s claim for such weapons in Iraq in 2002. He has also criticized the Obama administration for not asking Mubarak to resign. Mr. ElBaradei is a Nobel laureate and diplomat, so he has been a consensus figure and a candidate acceptable to the West. He has won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2005 for his work as director of the IAEA: the United Nations nuclear watchdog.

Whether Mr. ElBaradei can emerge as a consensus figure remains to be seen. Protestors’ reaction to Mr. ElBaradei has been mixed. Some of them have been sympathetic but many of them have been skeptical about him, as he has been seen as a man of the west, and he does not understand the Egyptian people.

Military helicopters flew over the protestors circling the Tahrir Square, and fighter planes roared across the sky. However, the army has remained friendly to the protesters. So, the protestors have cheered as the helicopters passed overhead. Some of protestors have carried a captain in uniform on their shoulders, and marched him through the square. Despite the shortage of food supply, street vendors have offered Egyptian dishes at discount prices to the protesters.

Vigilantes comprising youths and senior men have guarded their own neighborhoods. They have said that they are in contact with the military and cooperating with each other on keeping the gang of robbers at bay. They have been proud of keeping their neighborhood safe from the threat of looters and thieves. Egyptians have taken control of their destiny against the odds.

Senator John McCain of Arizona has unfolded the possible scenarios such as if Mr. Mubarak agrees not to seek re-election, turns over his government to a caretaker, and insures a free, open, transparent election in September but this is a narrow window of opportunity; the longer unrest exists, the more likely it is to become extreme. Some American diplomats believe that Mr. Mubarak’s political demise was only a matter of time.

Former ambassador to Egypt Edward Walker has said on CNN that he does not expect a rise to power of the Muslim Brotherhood, an Islamic opposition group that Mr. Mubarak’s government has long suppressed, and to suggest a parallel to the Iranian revolution of 1979 is “a way overreach.”

On Saturday, January 29, 2011, Mubarak has appointed Omar Suleiman as the Vice-president of Egypt. He might be the successor to Mubarak. He has served as the Egypt’s foreign intelligence chief and Egypt’s lead liaison with the Palestinians for several years. If he succeeds Mubarak it would mean not the democratic change the protestors have called for on the street, but the continuation of the military-backed authoritarian regime that Mr. Mubarak has run for nearly 30 years, experts have said that the people would not accept him, as the protestors have already stated chanting against him.

Mr. Suleiman has run Egypt’s General Intelligence Service since 1993 fighting against the Islamic extremists. He has fought two wars with Israel, as did Mibarak. He is 74 years old now. He distrusts Iran, favors close relations with Washington, supports the peace deal with Israel, and has been against the Muslim Brotherhood: the principal opposition group. He has dealt with Hamas, Hezbollah and Sudan problems.

With the choice of Mr. Suleiman as his successor, experts have said that Mr. Mubarak has adopted the strategy of safe and smooth exit from power. According to the WikiLeaks, Mr. Suleiman has shared the Washington’s foreign policy agenda. In one of the leaked memos, Mr. Suleiman said, “Egypt will continue to provide the USG with its knowledge and expertise on the critical regional issues, such as Lebanon and Iraq. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains the core issue.” According to the experts, he has negotiated several cease-fires between Israel and the Palestinians and, has earned the respect of Hamas: the militant group that controls the Gaza Strip.

On Tuesday night, February 01, 2011, in his address to nation, Mubarak has made one more back step saying he is not running for president at the next polls, and has pledged constitutional reform, and to ensure a peaceful transition to his successor. He will stay on in power until the presidential election scheduled for September this year.

Responding to the Mubarak’s pledge not to run for president in the next election, US President Barack Obama has said that an orderly transition “must begin now”, "the status quo is not sustainable and a change must take place."

Egyptian opposition leader Mohamed ElBaradei has dismissed Mubarak's move as a trick to stay on in power, and protesters have vowed to protest against Mubarak to force him out of the presidential palace.

On February 02, 2011, Mubarak and his clique have choreograph pro-Mubarak demonstrators and sent them to fight the protestors at the Tahrir Square causing clashes between the anti-Mubarak and pro-Mubarak protestors. Obviously, Mubarak has withdrawn the police from the Tahrir Square letting the anti-and pro-Mubarak fight against each other. The army-armored vehicles have been standing between the two rival groups in some areas. Pro-Mubarak demonstrators have said that they have received 50 Egyptian pounds for holding the pro-Mubarak banners and placards. Some pro-Mubarak demonstrators have been riding on horses and camels to clash with the anti-Mubarak demonstrators. Some of them have thrown Molotov cocktails on the armored vehicles. The army has used water canons to douse the fire sparked by the Molotov cocktails. The flying stones hurled by the rival protestors, and the stick fights between the rival groups have wounded many people. According to the media reports, thousands of pro-Mubarak demonstrators have been brought to the Tahrir Square by buses. The anti-Mubarak protesters have accused the army of letting in their pro-government rivals.

The attacks on anti-Mubarak protesters are drawing global condemnation. British Prime Minister David Cameron issued a statement saying, "if it turns out that the regime is any way has been sponsoring and tolerating this violence, that be completely and utterly unacceptable. These are despicable scenes that we are seeing, and they should not be repeated." UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon said, "Any attack against the peaceful demonstrators is unacceptable and I strongly condemn it."

President Obama condemns "the outrageous and deplorable violence" on the streets of Cairo today and 'it is imperative that the violence we are seeing stop," spokesman Robert Gibbs said on February 02, 2011. "Obviously, if any of the violence is instigated by the government, it should stop immediately," Gibbs said. "That has been our message throughout this." The White House spokesman also repeated that, as it watches an apparent crackdown on protesters by supporters of embattled President Hosni Mubarak, the U.S. is reviewing its $1.5 billion package of aid to Egypt, the Oval news states.

The Egyptian Foreign Ministry has accused foreign leaders of causing violence by their calls for an immediate transition from the government of President Hosni Mubarak. The foreign ministry has rejected the calls of the foreign countries for a period of transition beginning immediately in Egypt, spokesman for the Foreign Ministry Hossam Zaki said, and such calls have inflamed the internal situation in Egypt.

The United States and the European Union have asked Mubarak to act as quickly as possible for an orderly transition.

Assaults on media men particularly the western journalists and cameramen have increased after the pro-Mubarak demonstrators have come on the scene. Mostly peaceful protest against Mubarak has turned into violence killing at least one person and injuring several hundred people according to the state-run TV of Egypt. The unrecorded deaths and injured might run tens and hundreds of people.

The White House has issued a statement condemning violence in Egypt. Spokesman for the White House Robert Gibbs has said, “the United States deplores and condemns the violence that is taking place in Egypt, and we are deeply concerned about attacks on the media and peaceful demonstrators. We repeat our strong call for restraint.”

On February 03, 2011, Egypt Prime Minister Ahmed Shafiq has apologized for the Tahrir Square violence on Wednesday, February 02, 2011. The fighting between pro-and anti-government demonstrators in Cairo's Tahrir Square has killed five people and wounded several hundred. Speaking on the private-owned al-Hayat television, Prime Minister Ahmed Shafiq has pledged to investigate the violence calling it a "fatal error". Mr. Shafiq said, "When investigations reveal who is behind this crime and who allowed it to happen, I promise they will be held accountable and will be punished for what they did." "There is no excuse whatsoever to attack peaceful protesters, and that is why I am apologizing," he said, urging the protesters "to go home to help end this crisis".

Meanwhile, the leaders of France, Germany, Britain, Italy and Spain have issued a joint statement condemning the violence and calling for a political transition that "must start now" according to the BBC NEWS.

On Wednesday, February 02, 2011 opposing groups fought pitched battles in Cairo, in the worst violence in 10 days of protests. The unrest has left about 300 people dead across the country over the past 10 days, according to UN estimates, BBC NEWS states.

The Tahrir Square has been the main battlefield for anti-and pro-Mubarak demonstrators.  They have been throwing stones at each other. During the stone throwing the pro-Mubarak demonstrators have started heavy firing on the anti-Mubarak protestors.

Anti-government protesters have caught several people with ID cards linking them with police or the ruling party attacking demonstrators on the Tahrir Square. Those attacking them appear to be either police who have taken off their uniforms or plain-clothes "thugs", BBC correspondent says. The military leadership seems deeply uncomfortable with what is happening, they do not want to turn on protesters but they are not willing to defy the president either adds the correspondent. If Mr Mubarak does not step down, demonstrators have planned to march on the presidential palace on Friday, BBC NEWS says.

Vice-president Suleiman has said that detained demonstrators not involved in criminal acts will be released but those responsible for the clashes and the general deterioration in security will be held accountable.

At the same time, the public prosecutor issued a travel ban on three former ministers and a senior member of the ruling party including the unpopular former Interior Minister Habib al-Adly. The statement by the public prosecutor says that the ban covers other officials and will last until national security is restored and the authorities and monitoring bodies have undergone their investigations.

Egyptian opposition leader Mohamed ElBaradei and the Muslim Brotherhood have rejected the government calls for negotiations, saying Mr Mubarak must leave office first as the condition for talking to the government.

Meanwhile the Egyptian authorities have used the network of the Vodafone firm to send pro-government messages.

"We are concerned. We are watching this very anxiously," says Dan Gillerman, a former Israeli ambassador to the United Nations. "This is a very, very tough neighborhood," he says. "We are already facing Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza and the prospect of, God forbid, an autocratic, fundamentalist, Islamic organization taking over in Egypt is obviously not something we can ignore," BBC NEWS of February 01, 2011 says. Mr Gillerman is talking about the Egyptian Islamist movement, the Muslim Brotherhood.

"What could develop and which has developed already in several countries, including Iran - repressive regimes of radical Islam - that is the fear, of all of us," said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday, January 31, 2011 in his strongest comments yet on the Egyptian crisis.

Egypt and Israel signed a peace treaty in 1979. US President Jimmy Carter brought together the Egyptian and Israeli leaders Anwar Sadat and Menachem Begin to sign a historic deal. That treaty has stood. But it's sometimes called a "cold peace" because of the lack of enthusiasm for the deal among Egypt's population. Indeed, President Sadat was assassinated in 1981 by Islamic extremists opposed to the treaty. His successor is President Mubarak. (Extracts from the BBC NEWS)

"Israelis are extremely worried that we are going to get the Muslim Brotherhood on our border," says Gil Hoffman, chief political correspondent for the Jerusalem Post. "The Israeli army has not budgeted anything over the last 30 years for dealing with a strategic threat from Egypt." Israel shares a long border with Egypt and both have a frontier with the Gaza Strip. Israel and Egypt have been blockading the Palestinian territory for more than three years. The blockade is aimed at weakening the Islamist movement Hamas, which controls Gaza. Hamas is an offshoot of Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood.

Israel is worried that if there is regime change in Egypt, the border with Gaza will be entirely insecure. President Mubarak is clinging on, but Zvi Mazel, a former Israeli ambassador to Egypt who knows the Egyptian leader well, says the writing is on the wall. "He's finished. It's over. Even if he remains for a little longer, he's lost all his influence and authority. He should have gone five or six years ago."

Mr Mazel believes the best option for Israel could be Omar Suleiman, the former Egyptian intelligence chief who's just been appointed vice-president. Mr Suleiman is someone Israel knows well. He has played a key role in Middle East peace talks with the Palestinians over the years. The question is whether Egyptians would settle for him. For the moment, Israeli eyes are anxiously looking south. But there are also fears regime change in Egypt could destabilize the whole region.

Other Arab countries could follow suit. Jordan is one obvious place to look next. There have already been protests there against the rule of King Abdullah. Jordan has relatively good relations with Israel. The two countries signed a peace treaty in 1994. But Israel could end up with uncertainty on all sides. (This story is from BBC NEWS).

Protestors have called Friday, February 04, 2011: eleventh day of protests as the Day of Departure for Mubarak. After the Friday prayer, protestors have converged at the Tahrir (Liberation) Square calling Mubarak to get out of the presidential palace. Protestors have made several layers of checkpoints so that state-sponsored pro-Mubarak demonstrators have a little chance of entering the Tahrir Square. Hundreds of thousands of protestors have assembled on the Tharir Square to drive Mubarak out of the office. They have carried foods and drinks with them and have shared the foods and drinks with co-protestors. The army has virtually cordoned off the area lining up the armored vehicles around the square.

The government has imposed the nighttime curfew but tens of thousands of anti-Mubarak demonstrators have remained in the Tahrir Square chanting, singing and shouting the immediate departure of Mubarak. Protestors have waved the huge tri-color red, white and black flag, and have shown hanging Mubarak in an effigy.  Protesters have been calling for the immediate departure of Mubarak but Mubarak has not shown any mood of leaving the office, and rather has sent paid pro-Mubarak demonstrators on horseback and camels charging on anti-Mubarak protesters on Wednesday, February 02, 2011, causing the Tahrir square a battle ground and killing several people and injuring hundreds of others but anti-Mubarak protestors have held on to demanding his immediate departure from the office.

Mubarak has said in an interview with ABC's Christiane Amanpour on Thursday night that he is fed up with being in power and wanted to leave the office but if he leaves now then the country will fall into chaos and the banned Muslim Brotherhood will take over. So, he has no choice but stay on in power. He has also said that the demands of the young generation Egyptians are legitimate, and he has realized that he has hurt them.

Opposition leader Mohamed ElBaradei took issue with the president's remarks, saying: "We as a people are fed up as well, it is not only him." "The idea that there would be chaos is symptomatic of a dictatorship. He thinks if he leaves power the whole country will fall apart," BBC NEWS of February 04, 2011 states.

However, according to the time.com news of February 03, 2011, Mubarak is planning to launch a deadly crackdown on his opposition that will end in sheding numerous lives, as his Vice-president Suleiman has said on the state-run Nile TV that the street protests are the manifestations of the foreign and Egyptian elements, and the disruptions has already cost Egypt more than $1 billion; so, all the opposition groups need to accept Mubarak staying on in the office until the next election is held in August or September.

A senior member of the Muslim Brotherhood Issam al-Aryan has told the BBC on February 04, 2011 that his party prefers to nominate a consensus candidate. "We want a civil state based on Islamic principles. A democratic state with a parliamentary system, with freedom to form parties, press freedom, and an independent and fair judiciary," he said.

The BBC's Jim Muir in Tahrir Square says the mood is relaxed but it is not quite the carnival atmosphere that existed before Wednesday. At one point, Defense Minister General Mohammed Hussein Tantawi and other military leaders visited the square and spoke to soldiers manning a cordon, as well as some of the demonstrators. The secretary-general of the Arab League, Amr Moussa, also made an appearance. Some people shouted "We want you as president". Asked earlier by French radio if he would consider taking a role in any transitional government or run for office, Mr Moussa replied: "Why say no?"

The White House has been in talks with Mr Suleiman about how Egypt can begin making a "peaceful, orderly and meaningful transition, with credible, inclusive negotiations". The New York Times suggested that among the proposals was a plan for Mr Mubarak to resign immediately and hand power to a military-backed three-man constitutional council headed by Mr Suleiman. The BBC's Mark Mardell in Washington says other reports suggest the US plan has already been rebuffed in Egypt, and that the administration has been surprised by the attitude of the military and Mr Suleiman.

The general secretary of Egypt's ruling National Democratic Party (NDP), Ibrahim Kamel, accused the West of betraying Egypt. Prime Minister Ahmed Shafiq told BBC Arabic that 80% of the protesters' demands had been met, and that Mr Mubarak's decision not to seek re-election was tantamount to the "departure" they were demanding. He separately told al-Arabiya that it was unlikely Mr Mubarak would hand over power to Mr Suleiman, because the president was needed "for legislative reasons". The NDP has said the vice-president would not be able to amend the constitution or dissolve parliament.

to be continued.