Oli-led Government-35

A Consensus Government For Enforcing Constitution

Siddhi B Ranjitkar

On Wednesday, May 4, 2016, the Nepalese media and common folks on the social media went wild to oppose the change of the government indicating Nepalese media and people have been politically matured but the politicians have been several steps behind. Apparently, newly elected President of NC Sher Bahadur Deuba offered Chairman of UCPN-Maoist Prachanda to be a consensus prime minister of a new government, which Prachanda accepted and went to Prime Minister KP Oli to accept the magnificent proposal came from the mighty opposition leader but Oli in turn politely offered Prachanda to be the prime minister of the current coalition after the budget session of the parliament. Ultimately, Prachanda and Oli signed off a nine-point agreement to continue the current coalition for running the administration for a while.

After the return from India (Deuba went with his spouse to New Delhi ostensibly to treat her ailment. Deuba met with Indian Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj in New Delhi.), President of NC Sher Bahadur Deuba approached Chairman Of UCPN-Maoist Prachanda, and offered him the office of prime minister of a most reasonable and politically currently needed consensus government. Deuba would have been the greatest politician in the Nepalese history if he were to make such a most appropriate and timely proposal to bring all political parties together to enforce the new constitution sincerely without any party or personal interest in it.

Deuba also informed Prachanda that Deuba had talked to the Madheshi leaders that had been unhappy with not having certain clauses in the new constitution that were included in the interim constitution of 2007, and they were willing to sit in a consensus government to resolve the dispute amicably in the parliament rather than taking the issues to the streets for putting pressure on the government. So, if Prachanda could convince Prime Minster Oli of the need for changing the current government into a consensus government led by Prachanda every political party would be in a position to work concretely to enforce the constitution.

Obviously, Prachanda went to talk to Prime Minister Oli about setting up a consensus government. Oli had correctly convinced Prachanda of the time was not right for changing a government, as it would send a wrong message to the people; so, letting the current government to continue for some time would be beneficial and the most appropriate for the time being. In other words Oli was not in a mood to quit the office.

However, Oli said in a speech in the parliament on Thursday, May 5, 2016 that he would not stand in a way to a consensus government. Was it a sincere statement of Oli? Certainly not, if he were to be sincere he would have quit the office in favor of Prachanda who would be a consensus prime minister (again if Deuba were to be sincere), Prime Minister Oli’s name would have been carved in golden letters in the political history of Nepal, as Oli would be the tallest political figure in the history of the Federal Democratic Republic of Nepal. Obviously, he did not like to trade his office for the historical position.

Oil would have been an extraordinary politician if he were to immediately quit the office in favor of building a consensus on enforcing the constitution. Oli knew that enforcing the new constitution would be next to impossible without a consensus of all political stakeholders. However, Oli continued his speech in the parliament that he was not for rewriting the constitution but would not obstruct to amend it. Naturally, Oli stood in the way of building a consensus contradicting his own statement that he would not be an obstacle to a consensus. What a politician Oli had been not taking any opportunity of making the future of the country and his own future bright.

Evidently, Prachanda had been a great political manipulator, and he was for taking an advantage of any political situation. So, after the failure of talks with Oli in setting up a consensus government including CPN-UML of which Oli is a chairman, Prachanda set off the waves of a political quake declaring his party is quitting the coalition government giving a number of political reasons on Wednesday, May 4, 2016.

Prachanda’s statement of pulling his party out of the government provoked the strong reactions from the media and common folks, too. The Nepalese media and Nepalese people watching the political events were not for going into the details of the Prachanda’s reasons why he was quitting the coalition but they went on firing political bombshells on him.  The whole day on May 4, 2016, Nepalese print media, radios, TVs, and online media became forest fire that spread wildly against Prachanda withdrawing his party from the coalition government.

By the end of the day on May 4, 2016, Prachanda thanked Dueba for offering the office of prime minister but he told Deuba that he was unable to take the offer as the political situation and the constitutional provision did not permit him to take the very nice offer that would have turn the political tide. Prachanda had talked to the small coalition partners but none of them favored the change of the government. RPP-N had publicly stated that it would stay with the coalition government. Probably, Prachanda knew all these things before Deuba made such a proposal but he acted as if he liked the offer and he would take it.

Obviously, Prachanda also knew that Deuba’s offer was nothing new but it was what Girija Prasad Koirala did to Surya Bahadur Thapa in 1990s making him a prime minister for a short period only to take the office for himself. That was a great political trick Girija Koirala played in 1990s. Probably, Prachanda must have thought that Deuba was simply repeating the same political story.

Surely, Prachanda has not forgotten how Girija played a political game to make the communists fight among them. After Prime Minister Prachanda quit the office in 2009, instead of taking the office as the leader of the second major political party at that time, Girija made the man called Madhav Nepal defeated in two constituencies in the first election to a constituent assembly the prime minister bringing a tremendous shame on democracy. However, Girija successfully created a chasm between the two strong communist parties such as UCPN-Maoist and CPN-UML. Girija sat on the fence and took every possible benefit from the political cold war between the two communist parties.

The saying “one can outsmart anybody once or twice but not forever” came true when Deuba used the same technique of making the communist leaders fight among them offering Chairman of UCPN-Maoist the office of prime minister toppling Prime Minister Oli also the Chairman of CPN-UML from the office. That was a nice political strategy Deuba’s party had been adopting but this time Deuba could not make it happen unlike Girija in the past not because Dueba was less smart than Girija (Deuba may be even smarter) but because he could not fool the communists this time.

Some Nepalese media reported that Prachanda returned back to the fold of the coalition government after China conveyed the message of China wishing Nepal to have political stability. If the media reports on India and China playing a political game in Nepal were true then Nepal has become a chess board on which China and India play a chess game using Nepalese political leaders as the pawns. Are Nepalese political leaders really pawns? Some might be but not all. Some pawns had been clearly visible as former Prime Minister Sushil Koirala, and most of the Madheshi leaders, and certainly some ethnic leaders, too. Dr. Baburam Bhattarai could be another one. Let us not forget Madhav Nepal and Sher Bahadur Deuba, too for this matter.

Some NC leaders belonging to the faction of Ram Chandra Poudel recently defeated by Deuba in the election to the president of NC went to the resident of Deuba, and demanded the reasons for attempting to change the government unilaterally, according to the local media. Obviously, Deuba was acting alone as did his predecessors. None of the NC presidents from BP Koirala to Deuba bothered to consult the colleagues for taking such a vital decision as the changing of the government.

Evidently, while in New Delhi Deuba simply did not go to the hospital and watched his spouse recovering from an ailment but actively engaged in a plan on changing the government in Nepal even involving the Nepalese ambassador to India Deep Kumar Upadhaya. So, the government of Nepal recalled him from New Delhi. NC leaders vehemently opposed it. Upadhaya was a NC activist. He was supposed to quit the office as soon as the government changed but he remained in office. The government also had postponed the president’s visit to India scheduled for May 9, 2016 probably in view of the recent political development that had to do something with Indian leaders.

Prachanda was not a less smart, too. He knew how to take the advantage of every political event. Prachanda immediately cashed in the Deuba’s offer putting an incredible pressure on Prime Minister Oli, and made Oli to sign off a nine-point agreement. That was how Prachanda needed to save his party and his party cadre from the onslaught of the legal actions taken by the law courts even when his party was part of the current coalition government.

Madheshi leaders had been demanding at least to include whatever the interim constitution had, in the new constitution so that Nepalese would not be deprived of what the interim constitution had given them. Denial of the rights the interim constitution had given them had been the reversal of the political progressive development, Madheshi leaders had been telling which was very true but their failure in achieving their goal had been the support of Indian Prime Minister Modi for them to block the border entry points. They must have been tired of the political movement that had gone for more than six months without success even with Indian Prime Minister propping them up.

Certainly, Madheshi leaders wanted to resolve the political issues amicably but they knew that Oli stood in the way. Even though Deuba was not much different from Oli concerning the Madheshi and ethnic issues, Madheshi leaders were happy to talk to Deuba (after his return from India hinting at he has been influenced by Modi) for a consensus government headed by Prachanda who had always taken the Madheshi and ethnic issues favorably. They were ready to cooperate with a consensus government to enforce the new constitution. However, Oli’s stand on not making any concession to Madheshi and ethnic people could not make a consensus government a reality that supposedly Deuba and Madheshi leaders wanted to set up.

Some politicians and political pundits believed that the failure in setting up a consensus government tearing down the Oli government by any possible means was the failure of Indian Prime Minster Narendra Modi. They were absolutely happy that the Indian interference in the Nepalese politics was a failure. They also believed that Oli was not the Indian choice so India wanted to remove him from office at any cost. They appreciated Oli for firmly standing against the Madheshi Movement so heartily propped up by Indian Prime Minister Modi, and again Oli surviving the conspiracy to oust his government.

Indian Prime Minster Modi had been for the inclusive constitution taking into account of the Madheshi and ethnic issues, according to the media reports. What would have been wrong if Modi were to support the right cases of the Nepalese people? The only wrong had been Modi dictating the Nepalese politicians what to do with the constitution using even the violent force of the economic blockade on Nepal. Modi could have suggested Nepalese politicians what to do with the constitution and then simply watch how Nepalese politicians had been doing rather than actively involving in the internal affairs of Nepal.

For example, President Barack Obama of America had recently been in Britain for speaking against the Brexit from the EU. Surely, opposition leaders vigorously reacted to what Obama said and charged British Prime Minister David Cameron with especially inviting Obama to the celebration of the 90^th anniversary of Queen Elizabeth only to speak about the wrongs of the Brexit from the EU.

Certainly, Modi could go to the EU, Britain or America even Russia and complained them that the Nepalese constitution had left out the Madheshi and ethnic people and he could have earned the world opinions for correcting the oversights (deliberately done or otherwise) in the Nepalese constitution but his imposition of embargo on Nepal and making 30 million Nepalese suffer was an offense against humanity. The Nepalese media stated that Chairman of Nepal Workers and Peasants’ party Narayanman Bijukchhe even compared Modi with Hitler and Mussolini: the two great immensely hated political characters actually dictators even though Mao and Stalin were not very far from being not less dictatorial than the previous ones.

Who had benefited from the political lightning flash that hit Nepal on Wednesday, May 4, 2016? Certainly, Prachanda and his party that forced the prime minister Oli consider their issues that he had been neglecting for months even setting aside the letter Prachanda had written to him, benefited from the political burst. The political storm had gone but NC leaders and Madheshi leaders would not leave Oli in peace until a consensus on the new constitution was built with or without support of Modi. What they had been saying was with their vested interest or not remains to be seen.

Finally, to the dismay of Chairman of CPN-Maoist Mohan Vaidhya and former UCPN-Maoist leader Dr Baburam Bhattarai, Prachanda demonstrated his political skill in dousing the political fire he himself had set on. Prachanda had shown his political skill again and again except in the second election to a constituent assembly. His helicopter ride to reach the people during the election campaign cost NPR 6.6 millions to the national treasury only to get the third position after the election. He could not correctly read the possible election results when the Vaidhya-led Maoists had been engaged in defeating Prachanda and his party, which they successfully did.

Madhav Nepal apparently supported a consensus government not speaking against it or remaining a mute witness of what was happening in the political arena when the political storm took over the entire country on Wednesday, May 4, 2016. Obviously, Madhav Nepal was waiting for any opportune moment to topple the government of his rival Oli. What Madhav Nepal could take benefit from making Prime Minister Oli a failure, was only anybody’s guess. Madhav Nepal must be very jealous of Oli being successful to stand against the pressure of Modi, and to get China signed off the transit treaty at least legally making Nepal have an alternative transit route if needed be in the future. Madhav Nepal was known for his pro-Indian stand in the past.

Jhalanath Khanal: another rival and colleague of Oli openly came out against bringing down the Oli government, and he even engaged in the negotiation with Prachanda for stopping the fall of Oli government prematurely. To some extent Khanal also succeeded in making Oli remain in office at least for some time. Actually, Khanal was not the favorite of India. It was not publicly known whether as the prime minister he received any invitation to visit India or not while in office. He traveled to America rather than India for his health checkup even though Nepal also has the world-class health services.

The entire Nepalese media and political thinkers and common folks came out openly against the political game Deuba came up to play with Prachanda, and Madheshi people against the Oli government. Common folks in general and the media people in particular knew that making the current government failure means the political instability that would give the neighboring politicians the opportunity of having influences on the weak Nepalese politicians but very ambitious to be the prime minister. So, Nepalese people did not want such a dirty political game played by some politicians with the poor mindset. These politicians did not think about the future of the country but they needed to be in the elected office no matter how. This was what Nepalese people had been deadly against.

May 8, 2016.