CJ-led Government-29

Siddhi B Ranjitkar

Leaders of the major political parties particularly the UCPN-Maoist, NC, and CPN-UML have been making sure that the top leaders of these parties would not lose the elections to a new constituent assembly scheduled for November 19, 2013. So, all these political parties have decided not to nominate strong candidates at the constituencies the top leaders are contesting for seats in the constituent assembly (CA). Each one of the top leaders of these three political parties has decided to contest a seat for a new CA at more than one constituency. However, they don’t consider anyone of the Madheshi leaders deserve such consideration. Nepalis know that the top leaders are the main reasons for not being able to craft a new constitution so far. However, the same top leaders are trying to create an elite group of leaders that will craft a new constitution in other words they will set the destiny of all Nepalis.

Some political analysts argue that such understanding among the top leaders of the three major political parties on making the top leaders win the elections will increase the cooperation among the political parties on settling the major issues. It might be true but the UCPN-Maoist, NC and CPN-UML are divided into federalists and anti-federalists. The UCPN-Maoist along with the Madheshi alliance called UDMF has been for federalism, and federal states with identities whereas NC and CPN-UML have been against federalism and federal states with identities. These two groups could not reached a common understanding on these vital subject matters causing the dissolve of the past CA.

The major outstanding issues are clearly concerning the federalism and anti federalism. The upcoming elections will decide whether Nepalis in general vote for federalism or against federalism. So, making sure the top leaders winning the elections does not make sense. Nepalis have seen the performances of the so-called top leaders. Nepalis have no reasons for making the top leaders win the elections, and continue the political confusion they have been causing in the country.

If the Nepalese voters were politically well aware of the ongoing discussion on federalism, and federal states, and if they wee to vote for these two issues, then certainly, polarization of voters would be in two main groups: one for federalism with federal states, and another almost no federalism and no federal states. However, voters would not be voting for these two issues only. Voters might have party affiliation, preference for a candidate, and preference for the party ideology, and many more reasons.

We have seen how Chairman of CPN-UML Jhalanath Khanal, and then Chairman of UCPN-Maoist Prachanda took a slap from their own cadres. A chair thrown by his dissident cadre almost hit president of NC Sushil Koirala. Residents of his home district almost hit senior leader of CPN-UML Madhav Nepal stating he has done nothing for the district. Naturally, these so-called top guys are not sure to win elections easily. So, all of them have filed their nominations for a seat in a new CA at more than one constituency.

These top guys have certainly ignored the Madheshi leaders. They have gauged the capabilities of the Madheshi leaders. So, they must have thought that none of the Madheshi leaders will be able to make any dent in the future politics of Nepal after the elections to a new CA. They have seen how fragmented the Madheshi political parties have been. There is no possibility of the Madheshi political parties emerging united to win the elections. Consequently, the Madheshi leaders fighting against each other in the elections will surely give way to the candidates of the three major political parties to win the elections.

Voices for the Madhesh unity have been fading away very fast. Most of the Madheshi leaders have been going back to the mother parties they have left for joining the Madhesh political parties. Madhesh leaders have not found the common issues that could unite all the Madheshi leaders. Madheshi people have overwhelmingly voted for the Madheshi candidates in the elections to the past CA. However, this time, Madheshi voters have been divided into the party lines. Nobody knows for sure how many political parties the Madhesh has.

The ethnic political parties have not been able to put forward their political issues firmly even among the concerned ethnic people. So, they have not been able to draw the attention of the ethnic people to their respective party. Some of the ethnic leaders have left their mother political parties in emotion. They will have difficulty in getting their candidates directly elected but they might have representatives elected through the proportional representation system based on the number of votes the parties received. Most of the minor political parties will find their end in the elections.

If the political analysis made in this article were correct then the UCPN-Maoist, NC, and CPN-UML would beat all other political parties in the upcoming elections to a new CA. The top leaders of these three political parties will again have monopoly on crafting a new constitution.

The CPN-Maoist had decided at the meeting of the party held in Pokhara that a CA had been irrelevant to the country. So, they were not for participating in the elections rather they were stopping the elections by any possible means. They have several times threatened to take up even arms if the four-party political leaders were to hold the elections without their participation. They had even pretended to train their cadres on disturbing the elections.

Leaders of the CPN-Maoist also had attempted to disrupt the elections through the talks with the four-party political leaders but they did not succeed in it. They had put forward 18-point demands to the four-party political leaders but they came down to the four-point demands at the all-party meeting called by the president. Ultimately, they have come down to the two-point demand for the resignation of the chairman of the interim election council of ministers from the suspended position of the chief justice, and for postponing the elections for another date. Meeting any one of the demands means disrupting the elections scheduled for November 19, 2013.

The politburo meeting of the CPN-Maoist held in Kathmandu from September 30 to October 2, 2013, made decisions on boycotting the elections and strongly opposing and disrupting the elections to a second CA making clear that they were not for following the democratic principles of holding elections.

After failing in interrupting the elections through the talks, the CPN-Maoist leaders have again decided to engage strongly in disrupting the elections through any possible means. Speaking at the news conference held at Budhanagar headquarters of the CPN-Maoist on October 2, 2013 to make public the politburo decisions, chairman of CPN-Maoist Mohan Vaidhya blamed the four-party leaders for failure in the talks and for not continuing the talks. He said that his party had no choice but to boycott the elections, and stop the elections from holding. He called on the candidates to withdraw their candidatures, and on the voters not going to the polls. He also declared that his party would hold strong protests against the elections from November 11 to November 20.

Some political analysts believe that the elections to a new CA cannot be validated without the participation of the CPN-Maoist that has a claim for having 90 members in the dissolved CA. The question is how anybody can bring on board the CPN-Maoist guys if they are not for participating in the elections to a new CA, as they don’t believe in a new CA crafting a new constitution, as they have adopted the declared policy on disrupting the elections.

The Election Commission (EC) has been taking the election materials to the 240 constituencies. The EC has been moving with full strength to hold the elections. The EC has been strictly following the schedule for holding the elections. There have been minor incidents of some people wearing masks attempted to loot the election materials on their way to the constituencies.

The government has secured the presidential ordinance on using the Nepal Army for the security in the elections. In addition, the government is hiring police for a two-month term for the period of the elections. The regular police and the armed police are there to provide the security for the voters, election officers, and other people involved in the elections.

Upon arrival at the Kathmandu airport on October 1, 2013 after participating in the 68^th UN General assembly in New York, and speaking to the reporters, chairman of interim election council of ministers Khilraj Regmi has said that nobody can stop the elections from holding. Chairman Regmi also has said that UN Secretary General Ban-ki Moon is happy with the preparation made by the government for the upcoming elections. Chairman Regmi has said that he has met with Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh; the Indian prime minister also committed to help the government of Nepal by all possible means in holding elections successfully.

Bilateral donors including China have provided Nepal with all possible assistance for holding the elections to a new CA. The USA and the EU have provided the EC with considerable assistance for holding elections. All the bilateral, and multilateral international agencies are for holding elections on schedule. They also want the CPN-Maoist participate in the elections.

More six thousands candidates for the 601 seats of a CA have registered their names at the Election offices of the 240 constituencies on October 3, 2013. About one thousand independent candidates registered their names. About five hundred women candidates also registered at the Election offices of the respective constituencies. The CPN-Maoist cadres have protested at some areas but no violence has been reported. Some NC candidates have to face the dissident rival candidates of their own party.

The CPN-Maoist leaders and the government are heading to a showdown. The government is ready to cope with any show of the strength of the CPN-Maoist. The CPN-Maoist cadres can go back to the pressure cooker bombs but that would land them in heaven or hell. They could threaten the political instability in Nepal but none of the neighboring countries, and members of the international community wants instability in Nepal. They are ready to help the Nepalese law enforcement agencies to bring the perpetrators of violence to justice.

The Indian ambassador to Nepal has recently said that the political stability in Nepal benefits India. So, India does not want the political instability and conflict in Nepal. Similarly, China also does not want any kind of conflict in Nepal, as such a conflict would put China in a very difficult position to curb the Tibetan dissidents crossing the Tibet-Nepal border for going to the Dalai Lama in India.

The British ambassador to Nepal has said that Nepalis in general want the elections to be held on schedule. The British ambassador said that at the districts he recently visited he found the locals, the political parties, the civil society leaders and representatives of different communities wanted the elections scheduled for November 19 be held. The British diplomat also has said that political parties have the right to boycott elections but any unlawful activities in the name of boycotting election would not be following the rule of law.

Speaking at a special function held by the German embassy in Kathmandu on Thursday evening, October 3, 2013 to mark the German National Day, German ambassador to Nepal Frank Meyke has said that a democratic election is the prerequisite for freedom, justice and unity for every country in the globe and also for Nepal, according to nepalnews.com, and myrepublica.com.

Ambassador Meyke congratulated the government and the Election Commission on completing the preparations for the election successfully, and said that the upcoming Constituent Assembly (CA) polls scheduled for November 19 would be instrumental to ensuring a smooth transition to democracy in Nepal.

The envoy said that a newly-elected Constituent Assembly creating a democratic constitution without delay and local elections taking place as soon as possible would be decisive positive political signals for Germany, the whole European Union and for foreign investors, and signals that Nepal is progressing on its way to a stable democratic and prosperous country, according to myrepublica.com.

Germany celebrates its National Day every year on October 3, the day when the Reunification Treaty was signed between East Germany and West Germany in 1990, following the fall of Berlin Wall on November 9, 1989 writes Nepalnews.com

If the CPN-Maoist leaders are matured politicians they should know that interrupting the elections is the undemocratic means of expressing their dissent, it also goes against the democratic principles, as elections are the only means to ensure the people’s participation in the governance. If they don’t believe in such democratic principles, then they will need to face the State force that will enforce the democratic principles.

October 3, 2013