Nepal’s Election: A Peaceful Revolution?

International Crisis Group
3 July 2008

Executive SummarY

Nepal’s constituent assembly (CA) elections held on April 10, 2008 marked a major step forward in the peace process, paving the way for the declaration of a federal democratic republic and the start of the constitution-writing process. The Maoists won a decisive victory at the poll securing a mandate for peace and change but it was the short of an outright majority. However, the largely peaceful and well-managed vote opened a messy new round of political haggling and obstruction. The Maoists have been unable to secure agreement on a new coalition government. Other parties, still struggling to accept their defeat, have set new conditions for supporting a Maoist-led administration.

After the elections, the Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (CPN-Maoist) emerged as the largest party by a wide margin, winning more than one-third of CA seats. The largest established parties such as the Nepali Congress (NC) and Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist-Leninist (CPN-UML) were not wiped out but they have had difficulty coping with their relatively weak showing; their combined seats are less than those of the Maoists. The strong performance of new Madheshi parties particularly the Madhesi Janadhikar Forum (MJF) hit hard the NC. Royalist parties failed to win a single seat in the direct election but only got a toehold in the CA through the indirect election called a parallel proportional representation (PR) contest.

Long-suffering and politically sophisticated voters proved a testing audience, keen to hear what candidates had to say for them but well prepared to exercise their own judgment. However, it was not the cleanest of campaigns. The established parties resorted to old tricks to steal a march on their opponents. The Maoists and to a lesser extent the MJF outdid their more experienced rivals at their own game. The CPN-Maoist did use intimidation and coercion but also exercised great restraint in the face of the possibly calculated killing of fifteen of its activists. At the same time it demonstrated formidable organization and motivation qualities that were deservedly reflected in its victory.

The CA is a remarkably inclusive body, far more representative of Nepal’s caste, ethnic, religious and regional diversity than any past parliament. One third of its members are women, catapulting the country into regional leadership on gender representation. Thanks largely to the PR component; no fewer than 25 parties have secured CA seats, reflecting a kaleidoscope of ideological and regional or community-specific agendas. The MJF proved that it was more than just a brand name for a vague sense of Madheshi grievance but a viable political party able to mobilize votes and put identity politics on the map.

The Maoist victory was not unsullied. Nevertheless, its strong showing was not manufactured. Voters were willing to give credit for its struggle and sacrifice, recognizing that the Maoists were the architects of the federal republican agenda. They struck a chord with popular aspirations that the old parties had not even woken up to. In this, as in their more dubious techniques, they made full use of the fact that they had stayed in close touch with ordinary people and not lost their heads in Kathmandu politicking. The convincing victories in many urban constituencies, and the clear winner in the greater Kathmandu area demonstrated that the CPN-Maoist did not profit solely by preying on vulnerable rural voters beyond the eyes of observers.

All in all, the elections were credible and a credit to those who organized fought and voted in them. Although some disruption and intimidation took place, it was far less than predicted. Voters were offered a genuine political debate and real choices. In return, they took their responsibilities seriously and turned out in large numbers to have their say. For all the losers’ public petulance, very few collected evidence to file formal complaints. What remains is for the political elite to digest the message that Nepal’s citizens have at last been allowed to send them.

Kathmandu/Brussels, 3 July 2008