Oli-led Government-39

Oli-led Government-39: Oli Government In Crisis

Siddhi B Ranjitkar

On July 12, 2016, Janardan Sharma: one of the Maoist leaders took the letter from Prachanda: Chairman of CPN-Maoist-center to Prime Minister KP Oli stating his party is pulling out the support for the government and recalling all the ministers representing the Maoist-center, as Oli has failed to honor the nine-point agreement reached between CPN-UML and the Maoist-center. This is what our next-door neighbor Prime Minister Narendra Modi has dreamed of for a long time. This is the parliamentary trait, and the system the NC and CPN-UML leaders wanted to keep for the power play. Other political parties have started off a political game immediately after the withdrawal of the support for the Oli government.

About nine months ago, the same Prachanda had put together twelve political parties and then including the Maoist-center (the then UCPN-Maoist) formed a 13-party government to challenge the interferences of Modi in the Nepalese politics, and defeated the candidate put forward by Modi. Oli became the prime minister of a new coalition government. The candidate was no other than late Sushil Koirala: the then officiating prime minister that had shamelessly standing on the shoulder of Modi and with the support of the Madheshi leaders attempted to win the office of prime minister disregarding the agreement reached with CPN-UML in writing on turning over the power to KP Oli after the adoption of a new constitution.

Since the formation of an Oli government Maoist leaders have been putting pressure on the Oli government for enforcing the nine-point agreement and three-pint gentlemanly agreement they have reached with the CPN-UML. Even though other senior leaders such as Madhav Nepal and Jhalanath Khanal of CPN-UML have publicly acknowledged that CPN-UML has reached the gentlemanly agreement with the Maoist-center, KP Oli has been strongly denying any gentlemanly agreement reached with the Maoist-center.

If we are to believe the Maoist leaders then the gentlemanly agreement has a clause that has stated Oli would quit the office in favor of Prachanda after the parliament passes the budget for the fiscal year 2016 (2073). The parliament is about to pass the budget but Oli has not been in a mood to turn over the office to Prachanda. That might be one reason but another reason might be that the Oli government has not taken any step to craft a law that the nine-point agreement has said would craft within fifteen days of the agreement, as Maoist leader Dinanath Sharma told the anchor of the ‘antar-sambad’ program of the Radio Nepal on July 4, 2016. That law is obviously to reconcile the victims and the perpetrators of human rights violence. That is really a serious one than any other issues, as some of the Maoists seriously face the possibility of getting severe punishment including the Maoist Balkrishna Dhungel that has been indicted for the death and sentenced by the court but still the police do not want to arrest him, as the newly appointed Chief Justice of Supreme Court Sushila Karki has stated to the news reporters on July 12, 2016.

Modi must be very pleased to see the Maoist-center has quit the Oli government and the Oli has been standing on a single leg. Modi had tried to prevent Oli from coming to power even before Oil became a prime minister but Modi did not succeed as he took only NC and the Madheshi leaders on his side leaving majority of the political parties to play against him in October 2015 when the parliament elected Oli as a new prime minister defeating Sushil Koirala, Modi had so dearly supported and even shepherded the Madheshi leaders to vote for Koirala.

To counter the Modi’s interest in Nepal, Oli has appointed at least three political leaders of small political parties that have been always speaking out against the Indian interferences and interest in Nepal as deputy prime ministers. They are Chitra Bahadur KC, CP Mainali, and Kamal Thapa. Both KC and Mainali have been openly challenging the Indian interest in Nepal while K Thapa has been doing so in the name of taking a nationalistic stand.

How could a leader of the mighty country like India tolerate the challenge of such tiny leaders of a tiny country like Nepal? So, Modi while in the Europe visit convinced the officials of the UK and the EU of the Nepalese newly adopted Constitution needs to be an inclusive for satisfying Modi and his favorites such as the Madheshi leaders of Indian origin even though Oli has amended the newly adopted constitution apparently to the satisfaction of the Indian establishment. UK and EU leaders unfortunately staking their reputation sold themselves to the Modi’s idea and openly came out against the Nepalese Constitution. Probably, they did not take time to think a bit, and understand that they were not to buy the idea of Modi rather talk about the Nepalese Constitution impartially.

After the amendment to the Nepalese Constitution, India rather Modi lifted the Indian embargo on any goods sending to Nepal, and opened up the gate for the smooth supply of petroleum products and other essential goods after five months of blocking the border entry points for no faults of the innocent Nepalese that have suffered much more than anybody. More than that Modi opened up the way for Prime Minister Oli to visit India as a victorious guy, as he did not bend down to the Modi’s demands except for the minor amendment to the Constitution but Oli went to India with a great pride. Modi seemingly gave Oli a warm welcome but Modi never accepted the amendment and he went on insisting on further amendment to the Constitution to the full satisfaction of his favorites such as the Madheshi leaders that went to the neighboring State leader Laloo Prasad Yadav asking for the support on camera for the protest in Nepal. That was not only a great shame on those Madheshi leaders that had sold everything for the support Modi and Laloo Yadav were supposed to provide them with but also to the proud Nepalese that liked to stand as the citizens of the ancient country like Nepal that stood against the British Empire fighting for two years (1814-1816).

About three months ago after Sher Bahadur Deuba got elected to the president of his party NC, Modi was very close to displacing Oli from power and sending home the most formidable anti-Indian elements such as KC, Mainali and K Thapa not to mention Oli himself. Deuba went to New Delhi for the health checkup of his spouse. Prachanda sent his loyal Krishna Bahadur Mahara to Delhi where both Deuba and Mahara met and agreed on forming a new government, as the local Nepalese news reported.

However, Oli has managed to trap Prachanda in the nine-point agreement and apparently the three-point gentlemanly agreement that Oli never publicly has admitted that he has been anywhere near to it. If he were to admit it he would need to quit the office after the budget got passed from the parliament. In fact, Oli’s destiny might be to leave the office now whether it is to be honorable or not. He also did not like to feel the pain someone has suffered from not honoring the agreement he himself has experienced when Sushil Koirala scrapped the agreement reached with the CPN-UML to turn over the power to Oli after the promulgation of a new constitution.

Since the fiasco of forming a new government with the Maoists after removing Oli from the office about three months ago, NC leaders including Deuba stopped talking about replacing the Oli government with a new one. Deuba had vehemently attempted to dislodge Oli from power luring Prachanda to form a government but Prachanda changed his mind at the last moment and went for the nine-point agreement and the three-pint gentlemanly agreement betraying the trust Deuba had put on him. Ramchandra Poudel did not want to change the Oli government, as he did not want to see Deuba becoming a next prime minister, as Poudel has lost the NC presidency to Deuba, and pain of losing the NC presidency to Deuba has not gone off from his mind that his physical appearance has showed. So, Poudel has been campaigning for the enforcement of the Constitution rather than for changing the government.

Madheshi leaders also never accepted Oli as the prime minister. They wanted some one other than Oli as they felt that Oli has never been in favor of meeting any one of their demands even though he has been publicly telling that he is in favor of talking to the Madheshi leaders but they don’t show any interest in it. Oli even has said that he would like to meet their demands subject to not violating the Constitution. However, Madheshi leaders have charged Oli with Oli never been serious to have a dialogue with them. They also knew that Oli has been the eyesore for Modi.

Kamal Thapa has said that the actions of Prachanda quitting the Oli government has been against the nation, and disastrous to the country. Certainly, K Thapa will lose the cozy office of deputy prime minister for foreign affairs, and will not have any chance of so often foreign travel he has been enjoying since he has taken the office. NC, Maoists and Madheshi don’t need his presence for them to form a new government.  His importance will certainly diminish to the bottom level. He needs to keep himself from drowning in the political sea, and keep his political significant intact saying something to the public about any political event.

Speaking at one event held in Bhaktapur on July 13, 2016, Chairman of NWPP Narayan Man Bijuckchhe said that the Maoists had abandoned Oli with the Indian instructions. He may be right but he has set his habit to criticize India for anything wrong happening in Nepal, and for supporting China for anything he can think of. His main concern has been that whatever Oli has done to bring the Chinese experts to Nepal, assistance in grants and loans, and even the import of fuel from China will certainly be jeopardized with the removal of Oli from power.

Speaking to the anchor of the ‘antar-sambad’ on the morning, July 13, 2016, Bijuckchhe has said that it is unfortunate to remove Oli from the office of prime minister at the time when talks are going on for the possible visit of Chinese President Xi to Nepal. Bijuckchhe has been very concern for the balance of the Nepalese foreign policy tipping to the south from the current tipping to the north.

Indian leaders in power have been behaving strangely with Nepal. Narendra Modi as a prime minister of India when he visited Nepal had gifted the then Nepalese Prime Minister Sushil Koirala with a helicopter for the Nepal Army. Recently, India has asked NPR 1.7 billions for the helicopter given in a gift, the local media reported. Is it not strange someone to ask a payment for the gift s/he has presented to somebody?

Nepalese government is sending two pairs of two-horn-unique rhinos to China as a gift following the Oli government’s decision on it before the Maoist-center pulled out its support for the government. Nepal will surely never ask any payment for the rhinos given to China as a gift. It is not in the blood of Nepalese to do such a shameful thing.

KC and Mainali are not in a mood to quit the office of Deputy Prime Minster. They have been waiting for something miracle to happen as did three months ago when Oli and Prachanda reached an agreement on continuing the Oli government. Once these guys fall from power they would never anticipate being in power again. They have been the leaders of one-person-show parties. Naturally, they would stick to the office as long as possible.

Modi must have been thinking that after all Oli has gone from the power; then the Chinese so visibly present in Nepal after the visit of Oil to China in March 2016 would disappear. Oli had signed off a number of agreements with China. Chinese have been very quick to enforce those agreements. Currently, Chinese have been building a regional international airport in Pokhara. Chinese experts have been in Biratnagar and Mustang to see the possibility of oil and uranium respectively. Chinese experts are to do the preliminary feasibility study of railways in Nepal. The Ministry of Commerce has forwarded a file containing the petroleum deal with China for submitting it to the Chinese government through the diplomatic channel. The deal was for purchasing at least 33% of fossil fuel required for Nepal avoiding the total dependency on India for petroleum products. This is not digestible to Modi. America went to a war with Saddam Hussein of Iraq only because he had started off using Euro instead of American dollar for selling the petroleum products.

China had provided the Oli government with 1.2 million liters of petroleum to offset the shortage of fossil fuel caused by the Indian blockade imposed on Nepal. At that time, if Oli had been wise enough he would have used the petroleum products China had provide Nepal gratis for the major projects such as the Melamchi Drinking Water Projects and other nationally important development projects but nobody knew where the petroleum worth NPR 120 millions had gone and who got the payment for it. Oli did not want to make it public. However, Oli needed to know that China had not given the petroleum to Oli but to Nepal. So, Nepalese have the rights to know the information on what has happened to the petroleum, where the money from selling the petroleum has gone or who has pocketed it.

Oli had been so grateful to China that he sent the police to stop the Tibetans from celebrating the birthday of Dalai Lama in Kathmandu on July 6, 2016 even though Tibetans had secured the police permission to do so. China did not want to see even Tibetan exiles in Nepal but China had no means to drive away the Tibetans from Nepal, and Nepal could not do so for the humanitarian reasons.

After Oli has probably gone forever, Modi would have a better position to maneuver the Nepalese politics in his favor. Even though Prachanda becomes the next prime minister NC would wield the power. Prachanda would be simply sitting on the lap of Deuba even though Prachanda would be officially a prime minister of Nepal. Nepalese have seen that NC leaders have been taking orders from Modi. How could Sushil Koirala stand for the office of prime minister with the support of Modi in October 2015 if they were not taking the orders of Modi? The only unfortunate thing for both NC leaders and Modi had been they could not keep it away from the public eyes.

Madheshi leaders did not have anything to hide from the public that they were the favorites of Modi otherwise how they could run the protest for five months and block the border entry points causing the tremendous troubles to the 30-million innocent Nepalese. Probably, they are proud of blocking the entry points with the direct intervention of Modi that has ordered the Indian police not to release any trucks going to Nepal from India and vice versa. That was a great sin Modi had committed. Modi probably would not able to atone for the sin even after seven births if we were to believe in rebirths.

Concerning the rapid turnover of the parliamentary government, it is the trait of the parliamentary system of governance. Displacing a government had been even when a single party had a majority in the parliament for a stable government. For example, Girija Prasad Koirala forced Krishna Prasad Bhattarai to quit the office after a year from taking office in 2000. Bhattarai became the prime minister after the NC won the majority in the parliament in the general elections held in 1999. At that time, Girija had been so unpopular he put forward the clean image of Bhattarai to win the elections and let him be the prime minister for a year. Thereafter, Girija gave Bhattarai two options either to quit the office voluntarily or force him to quit not passing the budget for that year. Bhattarai chose the first option, and left the office quietly.

To have a stable government, any country needs to follow either the American system or the French system of Governance. For the years a president is elected, the president remains for that period even when the president dies or gets killed the vice-president takes over in America. So, the administration remains stable for the period until the next elections.

The current system of governance is the choice of NC and CPN-UML. Whether this system has benefited them someone needs to explore and find it out but it has been certainly not beneficial to the country from the economic development point of view. A change of government means change of prime minister and ministers. Whatever an outgoing government has done has not been acceptable to an incoming government. At least six or more months are required for the incoming government to settle in the state business and then restart the major projects, a WB study has said. So, the country loses so many months for continuing the State affairs.

Currently, Oli has several options such as submitting a resignation to the president on the moral ground as he has lost the support of the Maoist-center, face a non-confidence or confidence vote in the parliament, and dissolve the parliament. However, he has lost the last option, as the Maoists pulled out of the government. The verdict of the Supreme Court on the then Prime Minister Man Mohan Adhikari of the minority government dissolving the parliament was annulled; and it has been the precedent since 1995. Oli did not choose to resign. So, he needs to face the non-confidence vote in the parliament. The Oli government has been a transitory government. So, the article of the Constitution stating a government formed pursuant to the Constitution will work for two years without the need for facing a no-confidence vote in the parliament has not been applicable to it.

On July 13, 2016, Chairman of Maoist-center Prachanda registered a no-confidence vote in the parliament, and NC President Sher Bahadur Deuba seconded it. NC has 206 and Maoist-center has 82 votes in the parliament. They are short of only 10 votes to pass the no-confidence vote against Oli. Leader of Federal Socialist Party Upendra Yadav has declared that the Madheshi Front will support the no-confidence vote. Obviously, Madheshi leaders have been fired up, as Indian Prime Minister Modi must have been. Apparently, the no-confidence vote will be passed easily in a week time.

Chairman of RPP-Nepal Kamal Thapa declared that he would support Oli for any decision he would make. In other words K Thapa will support Oli in the parliament but this support will not be sufficient for Oli to remain in power even though other tiny parties will be supporting him, too. Oli and K Thapa might sail on a same political sea for some time to come.

Probably, Oli had not thought of the Maoist-center and NC coming closer and forming a new government for their mutual benefits. He must have believed that the Maoists are vulnerable to their third position in the parliament, and they would not make any difference to him even if he just ignored everything he had said and agreed with Maoist-center Chairman Prachanda. The result has been he needs to leave the official residence of prime minister in a week. His whole dream of holding elections to the local bodies, then State and Federal parliaments have gone astray. To the great amusement of his party colleagues such as Madhav Nepal, and Jhalanath Khanal, Oli will off the prime minister residence only after nine months.  Oli might be the second prime minister to remain in office for a shortest period after Jhalanath Khanal that had been prime minister only for seven months.

Prachanda and Deuba had reached a seven-point agreement on running the government, according to the local media. They have agreed that Prachanda will be the prime minister first and hold elections to the local bodies, and then Prachanda will quit the office in favor of Deuba that will hold elections to the State and the Federal parliaments, the news in ‘gorkhapatra’ stated on July 14, 2016. NC central committee has endorsed the agreement Deuba has reached with Prachanda.

The current political events might be comparable to the events in 1997 and 1998. Successfully breaking up the then coalition of NC and RPP, and bringing down Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba, CPN-UML leader Bamdev Gautam formed a new government making the then Chairman of RRP Lokendra Bahadur Chand the prime minister, and Gautam himself becoming the deputy prime minister.  The coalition of CPN-UML and RPP did not last long, as Girija Prasad Koirala motivated Surya Bahadur Thapa: another leader of RPP to break up the party and lead the coalition of NC and RPP again. Surya Thapa took the advice and he became the next prime minister within a few months: this time, of the coalition of NC and RPP. Surya Thapa quit the office in favor of Girija Koirala in 1998. In fact Girija forced Surya Thapa to quit.

The analogy between the current political events and that of 1997 and 1998 might not be the perfect one but it is tending to be the similar, and it is the main trait of the parliamentary system of governance. At that time, RPP had 20 seats in the 205-member parliament. Today, the Maoist-center has 82 seats in the 601-member parliament: effectively 595 members. The then RPP had about 9.75% strength in the parliament and the current Maoist-center has 13.64%. Small political parties can make a difference in the parliamentary system when none of the political parties could garner a majority, and enjoy power that none could imagine.

NC, Maoist-center and Madheshi political parties could make a comfortable coalition. They could form a government leaving CPN-UML and other tiny political parties behind. RPP (not RPP-Nepal) and MPRF-D of Bijya Gacchedar might be happy not only to give their hands to the coalition but also join its government. However, other Madheshi political parties may not like to see Gacchedar on board of  such a government if they are to join it. KC, Mainali and K. Thapa will not accept the new government that might have the blessings of Modi. Such a government may hold elections without problems but whenever they need a two-thirds majority they will need to court the CPN-UML.

The current political events clearly have raised the question of whether some others in other words the neighbors have incited Nepalese politicians or not to indulge in a political game, one thing it has made very clear is that Nepalese politicians surely don’t know how to stay on in power. They have sufficiently learned techniques to win the power but have not learned the technique of remaining in power.

In 2009, the then Prime Minister Prachanda suddenly quit the office after nine months in office stating the President had interfered in his prerogative of firing the then Chief of Army Staff Rugmangud Katuwal. Then, Jhalanath Khanal became the prime minister only for seven months from February 6, to August 29, 2011. Now, only after nine months Oli is facing the no-confidence vote in the parliament. Probably, he will lose the job without any doubt as his opposition has been placed strongly in the parliament. How come Oli could not manage the government that has earned so much of support from the people at the time of the Indian blockade? Certainly, Oli could not capitalize on such popular support. Oli might be a great politician or even a statement without being a serious in his statements but he is surely a novice in running the government stably.

July 14, 2016