The S - Factor for Stability to E - Factor for Economy

By Sanjib Subba

Deng Xiao Ping changed the Chairman Mao’s course to lead China to the economic prosperity through his market economic policy. Deng had been smart enough to capitalize on the S – Factor for stability. China now stands at the forefront of the leading economies in the world with the capability of feeding its billion plus citizens as well as fuel the world economy. Another sleeping tiger Vietnam is emerging in South East Asia and on the world economic map with the GDP growth of 8 % year after year. The smart economic reform policy followed by the government to support the open market economy is now turning Vietnam to one of the robust economies in the region; and Vietnamese are reaping the benefits from the Foreign Direct Investments (FDIs), industrial growth, domestic market movement etc. Then, there is Singapore a city-state better known for its financial riches and a robust economy; and then, of course our immediate neighbor India that has followed the smart economic policy is rapidly emerging in the world economic map as a leader.
Why these nations have been able to excel so much in so short time span? What has been the driving factor for these nations to achieve remarkable economic growth that too when two of them (China and Vietnam) are communist states and Singapore is an authoritarian government? The answer I guess lies in the S-Factor – The “Stability”. As a matter of fact, the western countries teach us democratic values but have emerged as the biggest investors in both China and Vietnam. So, the best bet is not to be misguided with western interpretation of democratic values but to come up with the homegrown-reality-based solutions to our unique problem in Nepal. Another very good and more relevant example is India where a coalition government is working in the interest of the nation and citizens, and giving very high assurance of the return on their investments particularly to foreign investors so business is not only moving on but expanding at an impressive rate.
The biggest motivation for investors is the political stability any country could offer and the market economy it adopts. After all, every business has to meet its bottom line and the Return on Investment for attracting FDIs. In terms of FDI recipient nations, China has been constantly ranked as the number one destination now closely followed by India: one is communist country another is democratic but the common factor is the stable politics.
The stable politics has been the platform for these nations to build on where they are right now. However, I must warn the S- Factor could be misleading just like political stability in Myanmar or Pakistan or that of other nations in the region; so, the main mantra is not just the political stability but willingness and smartness to capitalize on the political stability to achieve E - factor for Economy. Make people busy supporting economy for themselves, their families, their community and the nation in a healthy, productive and self sustaining way. After all the bottom line is to have the basic needs met first and then move on to meet other needs on the hierarchy following the hierarchy of needs Abraham Maslow put it in his scholarly paper Hierarchy of Needs.
The CPN-Maoist now has won the larger number of seats in the CA than other political parties and challenge for it is to take both politics and economics side by side to the next level of prosperity and stability and I believe this is possible and doable however only with selfless act of everyone involved in meeting the peoples’ aspirations seriously. Honestly, CPN- Maoist or any other party for that matter has failed to assure the Nepalese people of how they are going to lead Nepal to economic prosperity; it’s a hope against hope but is worth hoping.
The same mob that helped create a road map for the CA election also voted for change and this has benefited the CPN– Maoist. They are new kid on the block; people felt that they deserve the opportunity. Even for the CPN- Maoist this win is a sweet victory and a surprise gift.
Hence, the onus is heavy on the CPN-Maoist and the reality is that their jungle experience is not enough to drive the country to meet peoples’ expectations. However, with smart approach, inclusion of right people irrespective of the political background and formation of reality-based-economic policy could lead Nepal to its next level. The Vietnamese came out of jungle in mid seventies; and they laid out their economic policy by mid eighties. We cannot afford a whole decade to formulate a policy though. The world is rapidly changing and advancing and we must move rapidly to reduce the gap at a light speed with as much precision and accuracy as we can.
The CPN- Maoist should understand that the CA-election win is not a certificate for them to rule as they see it fit but a fresh mandate to draft and establish a new constitution. In order to achieve the crafting of a constitution that addresses everyone fairly, the next government must be of coalition of all partners in the CA. The political understanding and team environment to work together must be retained.
The rebel force always finds breeding ground in suppression, poverty, alienation, feudalism, corruption, nepotism etc so the first order is to create a clear road map to minimize all these things at a visible and measurable level. Many of these cannot be eradicated but could be minimized and that would be the realistic approach so that no one takes the country back to the misery giving false hopes and aspiration to the people.
It’s bit surprising though that no political party has spent its energy on working out what would be a new Nepal’s economic policy looks like, I mean this could have been done in the last eighteen months - at least a minimum common understanding could have been reached among all political parties to adopt some fundamental aspects of the new economic policy. We have lost years of lead-time and this is the moment in the history that would not come again for a long time. We must capitalize on these strengths and cash on the opportunities. For this we all must work together forgetting differences.
Now, a task force should immediately start working on drafting an economic policy and this policy should have clear agenda and time line. The draft policy should include the inputs from villages and districts to see what the people in that areas think about the economic need of their region. Mostly, an economic policy fails if it is designed and implemented by the people far away from the ground realities. So, the economic policy should be made people-oriented properly formulating it through community platforms, associations, chambers, schools, colleges and universities so that everyone understands his/her role in and contribution to it; thus, the policy becomes the national main mantra. In other words, the approved economic policy needs to be made the people-oriented; people at all levels should have the feeling of the ownership of it; and they are ready to contribute to it. We would need to achieve a major economic policy before the general election in two years time with the legal provision that whoever comes to power after the new constitution would honor and implement the economic policy.
Nepal must move away from its dependency on foreign aid and donations, as this has been crippling our life mentally and physically. We must move toward the self-sustained economy and boldly but politely say no thank you to donors. We need funds but for infrastructure development and we must be cautious not to fall in the obvious trap. The funding agency does have an agenda on pleasing the masters in the background. Most of the time the foreign donation and aid fund are misused and does not reach the beneficiaries; this process should stop.
Nepalese people not only voted for change but they also sent the message to political parties to work together hence they should accept this verdict and work toward making people’s aspirations come true. People are tired of war and killings, they are tired of escalating prices, they are tired of strike and shutdown (Banda), and they are tired of queuing up for essential items. They are tired of being sold in Indian brothels, they are tired of cheated by foreign-employment agencies and they are tired of bullying based on the caste, race and religion and many more.
Let us all hope that the success of CA does not become coconut in the monkey’s hands. Hopefully, our nation will move toward long desired peace and prosperity.
Sanjib Subba is the CEO of PCP Asia a Bangkok based Knowledge Management company. Mr. Subba can be reached at sanjibsubba@hotmail.com