Misread Future Political Events

By Siddhi B. Ranjitkar

After more than three years of their ineffective campaigning against the so-called regressive force since Gyanendra Shah fired the elected government headed by Nepali Congress leader and Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba, and then Gyanendra Shah taking power in his hands, leaders of the then-Seven Party Alliance (SPA) including Girija Prasad Koirala saw no alternative but to go along with the Maoist rebels to get into power despite the opposition of the then-US Ambassador to Nepal. After getting into power, most probably, the SPA leaders thought that they could stay on in power tricking the Maoists into rebellion again. However, the result was unexpectedly to the SPA leaders that the Nepalese people through the election for the Constituent Assembly put the Maoists in power drastically changing the political status of Nepal.

The then-Ambassador of the US to Nepal wanted the coalition of the SPA leaders and Gyanendra Shah to fight against the Maoists rebels. It was one of the best options the Nepalese politicians had had at that time but both the SPA leaders and Gyanendra Shah wanted to negotiate with other in their own terms. He told publicly that his ancestors had earned the kingdom; so, it belonged to him and he was not in a mood to change his mind. The SPA leaders wanted nothing but the return of power to them. So, the US Ambassador to Nepal could not do much for bringing the people of two different political mindsets together.

The logic of the US diplomat was that if two of the three political forces such as SPA, rebels and Gyanendra Shah came together then the two could defeat the third party. The SPA had the democratic force; the rebels had the combatants; and Gyanendra Shah had the state power. Given a chance, Gyanendra Shah wanted to finish off the democratic force and then the rebels. However, he could do neither of the two. He just hung on to the power despite the warning of the US diplomat that Mr. Shah might need to escape holding the door of a chopper. The SPA wanted just the return of democracy. However, the rebels wanted to set up a people’s republic. By that time, the rebels had already captured most of the rural areas.

Reading the political situation correctly, the SPA leaders started contacting the rebels and then negotiating with them. Through the peaceful political movement, the SPA wanted to reinstate democracy lost to Gyanendra Shah. However, the rebels wanted drastically change the political situation in Nepal. SPA particularly the Nepali Congress (NC) was not for removing the monarchy but for taking the power from Gyanendra Shah. Consequently, the SPA and the rebels could not reach a deal.

The history of the NC was that it always saved the monarchy from extinction. In 1950s, the NC leaders took the power from the Rana family rule and then gave it to the then king. At that time, the monarchy was so weak if the NC wanted it could remove the monarch and declare Nepal a republic. Then, it did not bother to put pressure on the king to hold an election for a Constituent Assembly (CA) following the tripartite agreement signed by the NC leaders, the Rana rulers and the king.

In 1960, King Mahendra killed the democracy and put all political leaders in jail and made democracy illegal in Nepal. However, in 1976 Former Prime Minister and NC President BP Koirala even told that king Mahendra and he were conjoined at the neck; in other words none of the two could survive without the existence of other.

In 1979, BP Koirala did not take much interest in the political upheavals brought by the students’ uprising, and then in the referendum on the choice of between the multi-party party and improved Panchayat system. BP Koirala did not care to question the then government why the counting of votes of referendum was delayed for months. BP Koirala had the fear of the Nepalese left parties being powerful if the king was weakened. So, he never did anything that would weaken the position of the king.

In 1990, Supreme Commander of People’s Movement Ganesh Man Singh led the then NC and the unified front of all left parties to win back the democracy lost to the king. After the 49-day street rallies the king bowed to the demand of the people for the return of the power to the people.

Supreme Commander Ganesh Man Singh thought that if the multi-party system and the monarchy were put in the preamble of the Constitution of Nepal of 1990 making these two things unalterable then both of these two political institutions would be secured forever. However, the Supreme Leader failed in understanding that democracy and the absolute monarchy would not cohabit.

Again Nepalis lost the democracy gained in 1990 to the king in 2005. Gyanendra Shah grabbed the power from the then-Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba at the high cost to the nation and to the monarchy on February 01, 2005. He could not understand that the time is of the twenty first century; so there is no room for the absolute monarchy.

The SPA leaders and the rebels again started talking to each other. By that time everything became clear that Gyanendra Shah was not ready to give up the power to the people at any cost. So, the two political forces such as the SPA and the rebels representing the people came closer and closer for reaching understanding to bring political changes through the peaceful movement.

SPA and the Maoist rebels reached the historic 12-point understanding on November 22, 2005. It is a historic document in the sense that it contains everything that needs to make Nepal a democratic republic. So, it would not be exaggeration if we called it a micro constitution or it could even be the foundation for the Constitution Assembly to craft a new constitution. They agreed to hold elections for a Constituent Assembly and decide the fate of the monarchy through it. That deal made the monarchy vulnerable to the people’s forces that Gyanendra Shah did not foresee would topple him and the Shah dynasty forever.

Following the 12-point understanding, the two political forces: SPA and the rebels jointly launched the second people’s movement in April 2006. The rebels suspended their fighting and sent their cadres to participate in peaceful mass street rallies held in every town in Nepal. The SPA leaders denied the participation of the rebel cadres in the peaceful movement but looking at the participants in the mass rallies you could easily judge that they were not only the SPA cadres but also of the rebels’, too. The then government had declared the rebels as terrorists and would treat the SPA, too as the terrorist if the SPA allowed the rebels’ cadres to participate in the peaceful movement. However, it became open secrete that the rebels’ cadres took part in the movement.

Gyanendra Shah could not hold on to power for long. After nineteen days of the street rallies and the loss of some lives, on April 24, 2006, Gyanendra Shah reinstated the House of Representatives dissolved in May 2002. Former Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala took the oath of the office of the Prime Minister and again became the Prime Minister, and headed the Interim Government. Probably, Gyanendra Shah could not correctly read the future course of the political events.

On May 18, 2006, the House of Representatives declared it a sovereign authority, and changed His Majesty’s Government of Nepal into Government of Nepal, Royal Nepal Army into Nepal Army and so on. Over night the public erased the His Majesty’s from billboards and the government signboards.

The SPA leaders were for Girija Prasad Koirala taking the oath of the office of the Prime Minister at the House of the Representatives. However, he opted for taking the oath of the office from Gyanendra Shah, as he had profound respect for the monarchy. Most probably, he did not foresee that the monarchy would be extinct in the near future.

The Koirala family was for keeping the monarchy to balance the power the left parties have been gaining. Daughter of Prime Minister Koirala Miss Sujata Koirala once told it in public.

On June 02, 2006, the rebels held a mass rally at the open theater in Kathmandu for the first time openly surfacing in Kathmandu. They widely advertised that their Chairman Prachanda would surface and address the mass rally. However, Chairman Prachanda did not show up in the mass rally for the reasons known to them only.

On June 03, 2006, the House of Representatives made the historic nine-point declaration practically ending the Shah dynastic rule in Nepal. The House stripped Gyanendra Shah of his power and authority and gave everything of the king to the Prime Minister. Gyanendra Shah practically became not more than an ordinary citizen; however, he continued to stay on in the palace.

Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala and his fellow NC leaders became the mute onlookers of all these fast political changes made in Nepal. However, to the irritation of the public, Prime Minister Koirala publicly opted for a ceremonial king, then to a baby king and so on while his Minister for Physical Planning and Works Gopal Man Shrestha opted for making the king the first president of Nepal. In addition, Minister Shrestha did not initiate any actions to transfer the royal property to the state despite the resolution of the House of Representatives.

On January 01, 2007, the House of Representatives passed the Interim Constitution of Nepal of 2007 and set up an interim legislature-parliament of 330 members including 83 rebels in it. Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala continued to be the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister was supposed to hold an election for a Constituent Assembly (CA) without delay. Without making any preparation for holding an election for a CA, he set a date in May 2007 for holding the election, and then postponed it to November. By that time some political analysts had started telling the public that not holding the election for a CA, Prime Minister Koirala was attempting to save the monarchy.

United Madheshi Democratic Front (UDMF) launched a massive peaceful movement in Madhesh with the demand for making Madhesh an autonomous province and Nepal a federal democratic republic. Prime Minister Koirala could not hold on to resist the people’s demand for making Nepal a republic despite his persistent efforts on preserving the monarchy. The Madheshi movement was another jolt to the Prime Minister Koirala and the monarchy and contributed to the extinction of the monarchy.

Under the pressure of the public, the political parties and the international community, Prime Minister Koirala finally set April 10, 2008 for holding the election for a CA.

Prime Minister Koirala did not want to face the voters directly so he opted for getting elected indirectly through the proportional representation system means any political party could elect a number of persons proportional to the votes it received in the election for a CA. Voters received two ballot papers: one for directly voting for a candidate another for voting a party.

In the election for a CA, the monarchists suffered a heavy defeat whereas republicans received almost landslide votes. So, Prime Minister Koirala’s daughter Sujata Koirala and other members of the Koirala family working for saving the despotic monarchy lost the election. NC leaders such as Prakash Man Singh and Narahari Acharya won the election with a large margin of votes, as they campaign for making Nepal a republic. Another NC leader Chakra Prasad Banstola had once told the TV interviewer that the rural people had told him not to come with the king on his shoulder if he wanted to win an election.

To the surprise of the NC leaders that had not reached the grassroots level people, the NC could garner only 23% of the seats in the 601-seat Constituent Assembly whereas the rebels received 36.5% and majority seats in the CA. It was a great surprise for the NC leaders, as they did not anticipate that the rebels would make such a success in the election.

Following the Interim Constitution of Nepal of 2007, the first session of the Constituent Assembly held in May 2008 declared Nepal a federal democratic republic with overwhelming votes, made Gyanendra Shah an ordinary citizen and gave him fifteen days time for leaving the palace, and made the palace a public museum.

Interim Prime Minister Koirala was supposed to resign and turn over the power to the leader of the party garnering majority seats in the CA. However, he tried several tricks on different political leaders without success to stay on power and only after four months gave in and surrendered the power to the CA.

In August 2008, the Constituent Assembly elected the rebel leader Prachanda with overwhelming votes to the position of Prime Minister. He formed a coalition government of six political parties. Thus, former rebel leader Prachanda became the first Prime Minister of the Federal Democratic Republic of Nepal.

Thus, former Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala and Former King Gyanendra Shah misread the future political events that changed their fate drastically.

Former Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala continued to misread the political events and had made a number of attempts on opposing the current government instead of strengthening his party cleaning up the mess in it. It would have been better for him and for his party to go to the people at the grassroots level and strengthen his party’s hold at that level for the next election if he really wants to win the next election for him and his party, too. However, on February 16, 2009, addressing the mass rally held in Butwal to inaugurate the Eighth General Convention of the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist and Leninist (CPN-UML), Former Prime Minister Koirala said the need for the consensus politics in the current context of the political situation in Nepal. It seems that Former Prime Minister Koirala was gradually getting enlightenment. It is a positive sign not only for him but for the country, too, as Nepalese voters had voted for the consensus politics in the election for the Constituent Assembly in April 2008.

February 20, 2009.