Dr. Baburam Bhattarai Stays On-Part 32

Siddhi B Ranjitkar

No matter what the leaders of the opposition coalition of NC and CPN-UML would do, they would not be able to take over the power from the ruling coalition of UCPN-Maoist and UDMF. If they were to go to polls for electing a new CA or a parliament or even a president as Chairman of UCPN-Maoist has lately proposed, the opposition coalition would not win a majority in the elections. The opposition would not be able to topple the current government by the street protests. The only option left to them is to put pressure on the head of state to fire the government and turn over the power to the opposition or to accept the 11 states to be named by the to-be-elected state assemblies, 371-member House, and 60-member Senate once the four parties: UCPN-Maoist + UDMF, and NC + CPN-UML had agreed on. The head of state could not fire the current government following the Interim Constitution of Nepal of 2007. The head of state would need to step out of the boundary of the constitution to fire the current government. It would certainly mean a coup. Then, the coalition of UCPN-Maoist and UDMF would also use their forces to topple not only the government but also the head of state. It would mean the coalition of UCPN-Maoist and UDMF would have absolute power. So, the leaders of the opposition coalition have a few options they need to use carefully not to lose the state power forever. They also need to be aware of the coalition of the UCPN-Maoist and UDMF would run the administration for many years to come whether the opposition coalition likes it or not if the coalition of UCPN-Maoist and UDMF remains intact.

The opposition coalition of NC and CPN-UML would not be able to win a majority in whatever elections such as elections to a new CA, or a parliament or to a president they would agree on holding. Most of the leaders of the opposition coalition such as President of NC Sushil Koirala, senior leaders of CPN-UML Madhav Nepal and KP Oli were losers in the elections held in 2008 to elect a CA dissolved on May 27, 2012. These opposition leaders have not only no chance to go to the people and make good impression on them but also have not made any attempts on making good impression on the common folks. In the prevailing circumstances, these so-called leaders but rejected by the people have a little chance of securing the people’s mandate. Recently, majority of the ethnic-origin leaders of NC and CPN-UML have quit their respective party for setting up a separate party. Those ethnic-origin leaders staying on in these parties are not favoring the NC and CPN-UML for the negative stand on provinces with the ethnic names and so on. Thus, the opposition coalition would lose huge chunks of ethnic votes. Anybody could make a quick guess how many votes the opposition coalition is likely to get if the ethnic Nepalis and Madheshi Nepalis were not to vote for the NC and CPN-UML.

No matter for which elections they would opt, the ruling coalition of UCPN-Maoist and UDMF has good chances of getting a comfortable majority. UCPN-Maoist could bring back most of the lawmakers represented in the dissolved CA to a new CA in case elections to a new CA were to hold even though the Vaidhya CPN-Maoist might take some of them. But UCPN-Maoist might gain some more lawmakers offsetting the loss of some lawmakers to the Vaidhya CPN-Maoist.  Similarly, UDMF also might be able to get back their lawmakers to a new CA despite the efforts of Upendra Yadav’s MPRF-Nepal, and the Bhandari’s new socialist party on getting their candidates elected to a new CA. Both the UCPN-Maoist and UDMF would receive majority of ethnic and Madheshi votes. So, the ruling coalition could continue running the administration for some years to come despite the opposition coalition making so much of noises in making efforts on tearing down the current government.

The opposition has been telling its cadres to be preparing for street protests to topple the government. If the history is any guide then only the cadres of political parties could not make the protest movement a success, participation of the entire population is required. The question is whether the people would rise up or not against the government to help the opposition in ousting the government. The people have no reasons for going against the current government. Then, why do they need to cooperate with the opposition on smacking the government? Many people support the current government, as the ruling coalition of the UCPN-Maoist and UDMF has many supporters, too. So, the opposition would be simply making troubles to the people if they were to indulge in street protests in the hope of tearing down the government. The opposition guys can go on opposing the government not disturbing the daily lives of the common folks but it takes several years before they can make any dent on the administration. So, street protests that the opposition is saying to launch are unlikely to force the government out of office rather the government might emerge stronger. Therefore, the opposition would be well off to scrap their plan on holding a street movement.

The opposition coalition has been putting heavy pressure on the head of state for firing the current government and then appointing one of the opposition leaders to the office of prime minister. But it would be a clear-cut coup, as the Interim Constitution of Nepal of 2007 does not allow the head of state to take such an action. Judging from the pressure the opposition leaders have been building on the head of state, these opposition guys want the head of state commit such a grave mistake if not a crime for their sake. The irony is that these opposition guys claiming they are democrats and their parties are democratic want the head of state to kill whatever democracy Nepal has today. The head of state President Dr. Ram Baran Yadav has been wise enough not to take such undemocratic steps despite the heavy pressure the opposition guys have been putting on him for the last five months starting on May 27, 2012 when the CA got dissolved. We hope that the Head of state President Yadav would not take any undemocratic steps, and simply disregards the pressure put up by the opposition coalition.

In case, if the head of state President Yadav were to stage a coup then it would be disastrous to not only the president and the opposition coalition but also to the nation, as from then on staging a coup and counter coup would be a regular political event in Nepal. As soon as the head of state fires the prime minister, the ruling coalition would stage a counter coup, and would have absolute power. Then, the president and the opposition would lose the state power for some years to come. The political events would take different directions, and the political currents would sweep away the unscrupulous and corrupt politicians. Sometimes, wrong doings might right some other wrong things.

Senior leaders such as Sher Bahadur Deuba, and Ram Chandra Poudel of NC have been for reviving the dissolved CA in the hope of taking the office of prime minister. President of NC Sushil Koirala has been totally against the revival of the dead CA but for going to polls for electing a new CA. Recently, both Deuba and Poudel have been putting pressure on Sushil Koirala for agreeing on the revival of the dissolved CA that would be for only a short period to promulgate a new constitution. Then, the NC would form a national consensus government and would hold general elections following the new constitution. However, it might not be so easy as they would like to think; first they would need to agree on the thorny issues of a new constitution. Once the four parties such as UCPN-Maoist, NC, CPN-UML and UDMF had agreed on 11 states to be named by the to-be-elected state assemblies, 371-member House, 60-member senate and so on but both the NC and CPN-UML retracted from this agreement causing the current protracted political deadlock. If the NC and CPN-UML leaders were ready to simply follow the previous agreement then they would not have any problem of promulgating a new constitution. However, the constitutional hurdle might remain there to overcome before reviving the dissolved CA, as the Interim Constitution of Nepal of 2007 has no provision for reviving the dead CA. Whether the Supreme Court of Nepal could revive the dissolved CA or not remains to be seen. Constitutional pundits might argue for and against it depending on their political color but the Supreme Court might need to come forward and retract its ruling on dissolving the CA so that the CA might come to life again. Nobody dissolved the CA but it went on hibernation following the ruling of the Supreme Court of Nepal.

One thing, the opposition coalition of NC and CPN-UML needed to accept was that the ruling coalition of UCPN-Maoist and UDMF would win a majority in any elections whatever government would hold elections in future if the NC and CPN-UML did not go to the people and present to the people their stand on federalism convincingly. The opposition coalition had created such an environment pushing the ethnic and Madheshi people away from their respective party clearly opposing the federalism and ethnic names for states. Both the UCPN-Maoist and UDMF are for federalism and ethnic names of states. Thus, the opposition coalition had pushed the UCPN-Maoist and UDMF to form a strong bond between them for political domination.

So, the opposition coalition of NC and CPN-UML has a few options. They could go to polls for electing a new CA but the coalition of UCPN-Maoist and UDMF surely win a majority so they might be able to craft a new constitution comfortably without facing much challenges from the NC and CPN-UML. If the leaders of NC and CPN-UML were to avoid such a situation then they needed to go back to their previous agreement on 11-state federalism and two chambers of a parliament. They would not be able to win anything: both the hearts and the minds of the people nor the office of prime minister from the street protests. Common folks would suffer from the shutdowns and so on. All these things would harm the NC and CPN-UML. The Interim Constitution of Nepal of 2007 has no provision for the head of state firing the government and forming a new one. So, the leaders of NC and CPN-UML needed to forget about the head of state taking the power from the current government and forming a new government.

Top leaders of the NC have made contradictory remarks over the fate of the dissolved CA, signaling it has divided them. While President of NC Sushil Koirala said that the Central Working Committee of his party was preparing to formally decide whether to go for fresh election, Vice-chairman of NC Ram Chandra Poudel said that reinstating the dissolved CA was the best way forward. In Nepalgunj on October 26, 2012, President of NC Koirala said that reviving the CA was not an option. “It is not appropriate to insist that there is no alternative to fresh elections. If anyone oppose CA reinstatement, they should also be able to give its proper alternative,” Poudel told reporters on Friday, October 26, 2012. (Source: nepalnews.com)

In a radio interview on Tuesday morning, October 23, 2012, Vice-president of NC Ram Chandra Poudel said that he had been advocating for the revival of the dissolved CA for a brief period to promulgate a new constitution only, as there was no alternative to it, and asked the party president Sushil Koirala to zip his mouth for some time until the dissolved CA was resuscitated. (Source: THT ONLINE)

Speaking at various events held by the NC cadres of the Radha VDC committee of Lamjung and the Rishti VDC committee of Tanahun on Tuesday, October 23, 2012, Vice-president of NC Ram Chandra Poudel called on the cadres to gear up for a protest movement against the 'authoritarian rule' of the current government; he also said although the parties differed on how to amend the constitution, ultimately they would have to opt for elections, as the CA had not been able to produce a new constitution. (Source: RSS/thehimalayantimes.com)

Chairman of CPN-UML Jhalanath Khanal said that the current government would be toppled through street protests after the end of the festival season (Dashain – Tihar) in November. “Street protests and agitations have no alternative, as we are obliged to overthrow the current Baburam Bhattarai administration which would eventually pave the way to form a national unity government,” said ex-PM Khanal speaking at a Dashain-Tihar greetings exchange event held in Kathmandu on Sunday, October 21, 2012. “Let Baburam Ji stays till the festive mood ends,” Khanal remarked which had evoked laughter among the attendees. "The UML along with other opposition parties will continue protest programmes until a unity government is constituted." (Source: THT ONLINE)

During the meeting with his party cadres in Bharatpur of the Chitwan district on Monday, October 22, 2012, Chairman of CPN-UML Jhalanath Khanal directed his party cadres to gear up for a peaceful agitation the party planned to launch after the Dashain and Tihar festivals to put up pressure on the government to quit the office and build a national consensus. Chairman Khanal said that chances of building a political consensus had been becoming slim and directed them to gear up for a protest. "Formation of national consensus government with an agreement on national agenda is the voice of the CPN-UML", he said. (Source: RSS/thehimalayantimes.com)

Talking to the reporters at a tea party held by the Reporters’ Club in Kathmandu on October 21, 2012, Prime Minister Baburam Bhattarai said a consensus among political parties was possible after Dashain but before Tihar, as political leaders had informally agreed to hold fresh elections by mid-May next year, and that could soon be formalized. “We can promulgate a new constitution by incorporating agreed agendas and leaving unsettled issues to the new parliament. If that does not happen we can hold fresh CA elections, but for that matter we have to fix its modalities and process,” the PM said. He made it clear that a national consensus government would be formed to hold fresh elections. “Everybody can claim leadership of that government but that should be decided through consensus,” the PM added. (Source: thehimalayantimes.com)

Speaking at the same event, leader of NC and former Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba said that the CA must be revived even for a day to promulgate a constitution, but before that happened, all unsettled issues needed to be sorted out. Asked about how he viewed the UCPN-Maoist proposal for fresh presidential elections, Deuba said that there was no provision for it in the Interim Constitution. (Source: thehimalayantimes.com)

Addressing a greeting-exchange event held by the Banke district chapter of Nepali Muslim Association on the occasion of the Bada Dashain festival and the upcoming Islamic festival of Id-ul Ajaha (Bakar Eid) in Nepalgunj on Monday, October 22, 2012, President of NC Sushil Koirala claimed that the NC was the begetter of the concept of inclusive democracy in Nepali politics; everyone should love their culture and religion, but the person respecting the religion and culture of other communities is a great and noble in the real sense. All the Nepalis should identify themselves as Nepalis first to promote social harmony in our country where people of multi-ethnicity and of multi-religions live, and all the citizens should have respect for all religions, the Nepali Congress president said. (Source: RSS/thehimalayantimes.com)

Taking part in a face-to-face program held by the Reporters' Club at his Gongabu residence on Monday, October 22, 2012, Chairman of CPN-Maoist Mohan Vaidhya proposed his party General Secretary Ram Bahadur Thapa 'Badal' as the candidate for a new prime minister, and stressed that the leadership of a new government should be given to republican, federalist and nationalist forces and his party should get such an opportunity. He said that the leadership of NC or other parties would not be acceptable to his party. "Problems in the country could not be resolved as the UCPN-Maoist is not ready to quit the government and the Nepali Congress and CPN-UML want the new leadership at any cost", he said, adding that Dr Baburam Bhattarai-led government should step down to resolve the current political crisis. Both the proposals for the reinstatement of the CA or for going to polls for fresh elections are agreeable to his party, but a consensus should be forged following the constitution before reinstating the CA and the government leadership be changed before going for fresh elections, he added. He warned of hitting the street if a consensus among the political parties would not be possible in time and added that his party would support the NC and CPN-UML if they were to launch a protest for changing the government. (Source: RSS/thehimalayantimes.com)

The drama of the Nepalese politics might be reaching a climax soon. Head of State President Dr. Ram Baran Yadav has been pushing the political leaders to build a political consensus for breaking the current political deadlock. Chairman of UCPN-Maoist Prachanda also intensified talking to political leaders of the opposition coalition about the various possibilities of breaking the current political deadlock. Prime Minster Dr. Baburam Bhattarai said that political leaders would build a consensus after the Dashain festival but before the next festival Tihar being held after two weeks. So, scenes of the political drama have been rapidly changing every passing day. Most probably, the drama would soon reach a climax culminating in either a consensus or a conflict.

October 28, 2012