Forgot your password?
GDP: Its Rise And Fall
GDP: Its Rise And Fall
In its recent publication of the economic data of Nepal, Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) has stated that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the country in the current fiscal year 2015 (2072)* is projected to grow at less than one percent, according to the news in “The Rising Nepal” of May 4, 2016.
CBS stated that the GDP growth in the current fiscal year will be precisely 0.77 per cent making it the lowest in the last 13 years. CBS attributed such a low growth of GDP to the quakes in 2015, and to the border blockade ostensibly imposed by the Madhesh Movement effectively by the Indian establishment.
CBS stated, had the post-quake reconstruction taken momentum, it would have worked as a stimulus to the economy and the GDP had stayed on course despite the chaos caused by the devastating quakes in 2015 rendering hundreds of thousands of Nepalese homeless and without the means of living. To add to the misery brought by the quakes, the India-imposed border blockade had caused the tremendous negative impact on the economic activities for more than six months, as the shortage of fossil fuels and other supplies caused by the blockade put all sectors of the Nepalese economy down to their knees.
CBS said that the GDP growth was 5.72 percent in the fiscal year 2013 (2070), and 2.32 percent in fiscal year 2014 (2071). Regularly, the Nepalese GDP has been growing at around 4 percent per annum, CBS stated.
The growth of the primary sector comprising agriculture and forest, fisheries, mines and mining is projected at 1.22 percent in the current fiscal year. Its growth was 0.71 percent in the fiscal year 2014 (2071). However, the contribution of this primary sector is 32.28 percent to the GDP, CBS stated.
The growth of the agriculture sector will be 1.14 percent, as the production of paddy, wheat and millet among other crops is slumped, and the prolonged drought also has taken a toll on the production of staple crops.
However, the fishery sector grew at 11.67 percent in this fiscal year but its share in the GDP is only 0.5 percent. The growth has been due to the government's and non-governmental organizations' success in making efforts on development of the sector, and also it has been least affected by the quakes.
The mine and excavation is likely to have the negative growth of 6.54 percent in the current fiscal year. The excavation and collection of stone, pebble, sand and soil in quake-stricken districts declined sharply after the quakes; the excavation was further hampered once the government banned constructing concrete buildings.
The growth of the secondary sector (that contributes 13.43 percent to GDP) such as construction, industry and electricity, gas and water resources is likely to decline by 6.3 per cent, the CBS stated. The border blockade has badly hit this sector causing the decline in the flow of construction materials, raw materials and imported goods. The quake also has adversely affected this sector. So, the growth rate of the sector will drastically decrease, CBS stated.
The production of electricity, cooking gas and water will decline by 1.66 percent in this fiscal year compared to FY 2014 (2071). The disruption of construction of more than a dozen hydropower projects and the receding water level in various reservoirs due to a long spell of drought have been the primary reasons for decline in production of electricity.
Education sector is likely decline by 6.99 percent in this FY compared to FY 2014 (2071), health 8.85 percent and social 5.6 percent.
The service sector comprising the wholesale and retail business, hotel and restaurant, transportation, media, information and technology, financial adjudication, real estate and commercial service, public administration and defense, education, health and other community, social and individual services contribute 54.29 percent to the GDP of the current fiscal year.
The CBS has made public new data after carrying out deep study of the national statistics at a time when various international financial institutions and banks have been releasing differing GDP data for Nepal.
CBS has said that per capita income will decline this fiscal year as well. Per capita income will be US dollars 752 compared to US dollars 762 in FY 2014 (2071). The appreciation of US dollars has to do with the per capita income decease, said CBS's director Bishnu Bhattarai.
According to the preliminary estimate, the inflation rate will remain at 2.37 percent in the current fiscal year compared to the fiscal year 2015 (2071).
http://therisingnepal.org.np/news/11000
* FY 2015 started in mid July 2015 and completes in mid July 2016 corresponding to the FY 2072 that started on Sravon 1 of 2072 and ends in Ashad last of 2073
