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Putin visit to Japan will yield no quick results
Putin visit to Japan will yield no quick results
By Yin Hu
Source:Global Times Published: 2016/11/28 22:03:39
It has been reported recently that Russian President Vladimir Putin will pay a state visit to Japan from December 15 to 16. In November 2005, Putin visited Japan as Russian president and then again in May 2009, he paid another visit to the country as the Russian prime minister. Therefore, Putin's upcoming visit will be the first official visit of a Russian president to Japan in 11 years. It is likely to exert a significant impact on Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's diplomatic, economic and foreign policy.
Putin's visit to Japan reflects an improvement in Japan-Russia relations, and shows that Abe's diplomacy toward Russia has yielded some results. It will help to improve the Japanese public's view of the Abe government's diplomatic ability.
Since Abe took office in December 2012, he has actively pushed forward negotiations with Russia on the territorial dispute over islands known as the Northern Territories in Japan and the Kuril Islands in Russia. He has also sought to establish a private relationship with Putin. The prime minister has visited Russia for four times. According to the diplomatic practice, heads of states with equivalent status should pay alternating visits to each other. However, Putin didn't visit Japan for various reasons. In this regard, many Japanese people criticized Abe, saying he seemed to be "begging" Russia. Putin's upcoming visit to Japan can mitigate this kind of criticism and lay a good foundation for Abe to implement a more active foreign policy toward Russia.
During his second visit to Sochi in May 2016, Abe had a private meeting with Putin and presented a new approach to solving the territorial dispute. Although its content is not made public, the new approach may be that Japan would sign a peace treaty with Russia upon Moscow's agreement to return Habomai and Shikotan to Japan. In return, Japan would provide economic and diplomatic support for Russia.
On November 19, in Lima, Peru, Abe and Putin again discussed Abe's new approach, but did not achieve significant results.
Although Abe's new approach indicates his willingness to make compromises for solving the islands dispute, great differences remain between Japan and Russia. With the resurgence of nationalism in Russia after the Ukraine crisis, there is little possibility for Abe's new approach being adopted by Putin.
The Abe government hopes to take the lead in implementing economic cooperation based on Russia's needs in order to make progress in solving the islands dispute. In May, Abe put forward an eight-point economic cooperation proposal for strengthening cooperation with Russia in fields such as personnel exchanges, cutting-edge technology and energy. Putin's visit to Japan will further promote the development of bilateral economic and trade relations. However, the economic cooperation programs will have a limited impact on the resolution of the islands dispute, as the Putin government does not want to sacrifice territory to gain economic benefits from Japan.
The US does not want to see an intimate Japan-Russia relationship. Now that Donald Trump has been elected as the US president, the US and Japan have differences about issues such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership and funding for US military bases in Japan. In this context, Abe has actively encouraged Putin's visit to Japan, pressuring the US to consider Japanese interests more carefully.
Abe's "overlooking the globe" diplomacy is aimed at containing China's rise. China was made a target in Abe's trips to India, Central Asia, Southeast Asia as well as other regions and countries in recent years. Abe deems China-Russian relations and military cooperation as a major threat. During Putin's visit to Japan, he is expected to discuss a wide range of issues including the North Korean nuclear issue with Abe. It's very likely that Abe will seize the chance to push Moscow away from Beijing, impairing the China-Russian bilateral relationship.
Putin's Japan visit is a result of compromise between Russia and Japan. Nonetheless, it's hard to imagine they can resolve their longstanding territorial disputes and conclude the signing of a peace treaty during the trip. Addressing both issues needs Russia and Japan to form a long-term stable relationship of mutual trust, a level far beyond the current situation.
Nonetheless, Putin's forthcoming trip will have a profound impact on the two nations' bilateral relationship and the situation in Northeast Asia, which deserves attention and further discussion.
The author is a research fellow at the Research Center for International Japanese Studies of Hosei University and chief research fellow at the Institute of East Asian Studies of Zhejiang Gongshang University. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn Follow us on Twitter @GTopinion
http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1020727.shtml
